Epistemic status: extremely uncertain
I created my Elicit forecast by:
Slightly adjusting down the 1⁄6 estimate of existential risk during the next century made in The Precipice
Making the shape of the distribution roughly give a little more weight to time periods when AGI is currently forecasted to be more likely to come
[I work for Ought.]
Epistemic status: extremely uncertain
I created my Elicit forecast by:
Slightly adjusting down the 1⁄6 estimate of existential risk during the next century made in The Precipice
Making the shape of the distribution roughly give a little more weight to time periods when AGI is currently forecasted to be more likely to come
[I work for Ought.]