10-20% chance of “failure to treat” acute Lyme, given Lyme
30-80% chance of post-ICU syndrome, given admission to ICU (but that’s not tracking the counterfactual). There are ~4 million ICU admissions in the US per year, although those have a heavy long tail.
Lifetime chance of 30% for shingles (which is a manifestation of dormant chicken pox), although that should be trending down with the chickenpox vaccine. 10%-18% of people who develop shingles will develop postherpetic neuralgia (another source has lifetime chance of postherpetic neuralgia at 20%).
500 traumatic brain injuries per 100,000 person-years (albeit concentrated amoung children) of which 26-30 will create a long term disability and 17 will cause death.
Ok, ya, some of these seem roughly within an order of magnitude of long COVID (higher or lower, since there’s a lot of uncertainty).
I think it’s worth mentioning that some of the risks here are more concentrated in older people, but can still be within an order of magnitude of COVID risk for people around my age (28). I would guess only Lyme and CFS would be concerning for a healthy person in their early 20s who doesn’t take excessive risks of physical injury (low brain injury and post-ICU syndrome risk). I do wonder about recreational drug use, especially binge drinking (I never drank, so this was never a risk for me) and bike riding.
I’m not sure what I can do about CFS, fribromyalgia and shingles other than maintain a healthy lifestyle (diet, sleep and exercise), which I already am trying to do (but I suppose could be doing more), and I recognize is part of the point of your article. Maybe there’s some link between CFS and viral infections (Epstein-Barr, herpes), so I could try to avoid those. I’ve already had chickenpox, so I’m not sure what else I can do about shingles.
95% of healthy people have been infected with Epstein-Barr, it just doesn’t have acute symptoms in many people
Both Epstein-Barr and chickenpox are herpes viruses, all of which establish residence in your cells forever. “Postherpetic” doesn’t necessarily mean HSV1/2, it includes multiple viruses that are (EB, cytomegalovirus) or were (chickenpox, pre-vaccine) nearly impossible to avoid without living in a bubble.
Some very quick numbers (populations may overlap):
13.15 CFS diagnoses per 100,000 person-years (13.58 if you include idiopathic fatigue)
430 fibromyalgia diagnoses per 100,000 person-years
10-20% chance of “failure to treat” acute Lyme, given Lyme
30-80% chance of post-ICU syndrome, given admission to ICU (but that’s not tracking the counterfactual). There are ~4 million ICU admissions in the US per year, although those have a heavy long tail.
Lifetime chance of 30% for shingles (which is a manifestation of dormant chicken pox), although that should be trending down with the chickenpox vaccine. 10%-18% of people who develop shingles will develop postherpetic neuralgia (another source has lifetime chance of postherpetic neuralgia at 20%).
500 traumatic brain injuries per 100,000 person-years (albeit concentrated amoung children) of which 26-30 will create a long term disability and 17 will cause death.
Ok, ya, some of these seem roughly within an order of magnitude of long COVID (higher or lower, since there’s a lot of uncertainty).
I think it’s worth mentioning that some of the risks here are more concentrated in older people, but can still be within an order of magnitude of COVID risk for people around my age (28). I would guess only Lyme and CFS would be concerning for a healthy person in their early 20s who doesn’t take excessive risks of physical injury (low brain injury and post-ICU syndrome risk). I do wonder about recreational drug use, especially binge drinking (I never drank, so this was never a risk for me) and bike riding.
I’m not sure what I can do about CFS, fribromyalgia and shingles other than maintain a healthy lifestyle (diet, sleep and exercise), which I already am trying to do (but I suppose could be doing more), and I recognize is part of the point of your article. Maybe there’s some link between CFS and viral infections (Epstein-Barr, herpes), so I could try to avoid those. I’ve already had chickenpox, so I’m not sure what else I can do about shingles.
This isn’t cruxy for me, but:
95% of healthy people have been infected with Epstein-Barr, it just doesn’t have acute symptoms in many people
Both Epstein-Barr and chickenpox are herpes viruses, all of which establish residence in your cells forever. “Postherpetic” doesn’t necessarily mean HSV1/2, it includes multiple viruses that are (EB, cytomegalovirus) or were (chickenpox, pre-vaccine) nearly impossible to avoid without living in a bubble.