“Don’t do anything for 6 months” is a ridiculous exaggeration. The proposal is to stop training for 6 months. You can do research on smaller models without training the large one.
I agree it is debatable whether “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard is appropriate, but it seems entirely sane to pause for 6 months and use that time to, for example, discuss which standard is appropriate.
Other arguments you made seem to say “we shouldn’t cooperate if the other side defects”, and I agree, that’s game theory 101, but that’s not an argument against cooperating? If you are saying anything more, please elaborate.
I am saying the stakes are enormously not in favor of cooperating just for the chance the other parties defect. Very similar to the logic that lead to nuclear arsenal buildups in the cold war.
As terrible as those weapons, it would have been even more terrible for the other side to secretly defect then surprise attack with them, an action we can be virtually certain they would have committed. Note this is bilateral: this is equally true from the East and West sides of the cold war.
“Don’t do anything for 6 months” is a ridiculous exaggeration. The proposal is to stop training for 6 months. You can do research on smaller models without training the large one.
I agree it is debatable whether “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard is appropriate, but it seems entirely sane to pause for 6 months and use that time to, for example, discuss which standard is appropriate.
Other arguments you made seem to say “we shouldn’t cooperate if the other side defects”, and I agree, that’s game theory 101, but that’s not an argument against cooperating? If you are saying anything more, please elaborate.
I am saying the stakes are enormously not in favor of cooperating just for the chance the other parties defect. Very similar to the logic that lead to nuclear arsenal buildups in the cold war.
As terrible as those weapons, it would have been even more terrible for the other side to secretly defect then surprise attack with them, an action we can be virtually certain they would have committed. Note this is bilateral: this is equally true from the East and West sides of the cold war.