Each 6 months pause costs all the knowledge and potential benefits of less stupid models (and prevents anyone from discovering their properties which may or may not be as bad as feared). Each pause narrows the lead with less ethical competitors.
To state the obvious, pause narrows the lead with less ethical competitors only if pause is not enforced against less ethical competitors. I don’t think anyone is in favor of unenforced pause: that would be indeed stupid, as the basic game theory says.
My impression is that we disagree on how feasible it is to enforce the pause. In my opinion, at the moment, it is pretty feasible, because there simply are not so many competitors. Doing an LLM training run is a rare capability now. Things are fragile and I am in fact unsure whether it would be feasible next year.
How would the pause be enforced against foreign governments? We can’t stop them from building nukes or starting wars or mass imprisoning their own people or mass murder or...
How would it be enforced against foreign and domestic companies working under the umbrella of the government?
How would the pause be enforced at all? No incident has actually happened yet, what are the odds the us government passes legislation about a danger that hasn’t even been seen?
Each 6 months pause costs all the knowledge and potential benefits of less stupid models (and prevents anyone from discovering their properties which may or may not be as bad as feared). Each pause narrows the lead with less ethical competitors.
To state the obvious, pause narrows the lead with less ethical competitors only if pause is not enforced against less ethical competitors. I don’t think anyone is in favor of unenforced pause: that would be indeed stupid, as the basic game theory says.
My impression is that we disagree on how feasible it is to enforce the pause. In my opinion, at the moment, it is pretty feasible, because there simply are not so many competitors. Doing an LLM training run is a rare capability now. Things are fragile and I am in fact unsure whether it would be feasible next year.
How would the pause be enforced against foreign governments? We can’t stop them from building nukes or starting wars or mass imprisoning their own people or mass murder or...
How would it be enforced against foreign and domestic companies working under the umbrella of the government?
How would the pause be enforced at all? No incident has actually happened yet, what are the odds the us government passes legislation about a danger that hasn’t even been seen?