IMO all of the “smooth/sharp” and “soft/hard” stuff is too abstract. When I concretely picture what the differences between them are, the aspect that stands out most is whether the takeoff will be concentrated within a single AI/project/company/country or distributed across many AIs/projects/companies/countries.
This is of course closely related to debates about slow/fast takeoff (as well as to the original Hanson/Yudkowsky debates). But using this distinction instead of any version of the slow/fast distinction has a few benefits:
If someone asks “why should I care about slow/fast takeoff?” a lot of the answers will end up appealing to the concentrated/distributed power thing. E.g. you might say “if takeoff is fast that means that there will be a few key points of leverage”.
Being more concrete, I think it will provoke better debates (e.g. how would a single AI lab concretely end up outcompeting everyone else?)
This framing naturally concentrates the mind on an aspect of risk (concentration of power) that is concerning from both a misuse and a misalignment perspective.
IMO all of the “smooth/sharp” and “soft/hard” stuff is too abstract. When I concretely picture what the differences between them are, the aspect that stands out most is whether the takeoff will be concentrated within a single AI/project/company/country or distributed across many AIs/projects/companies/countries.
This is of course closely related to debates about slow/fast takeoff (as well as to the original Hanson/Yudkowsky debates). But using this distinction instead of any version of the slow/fast distinction has a few benefits:
If someone asks “why should I care about slow/fast takeoff?” a lot of the answers will end up appealing to the concentrated/distributed power thing. E.g. you might say “if takeoff is fast that means that there will be a few key points of leverage”.
Being more concrete, I think it will provoke better debates (e.g. how would a single AI lab concretely end up outcompeting everyone else?)
This framing naturally concentrates the mind on an aspect of risk (concentration of power) that is concerning from both a misuse and a misalignment perspective.