I think it depends on that, and only that, and should be completely disconnected from any social criteria such as “being contagious.”
Also, Eliezer writes, “If your model of reality suggests that the outputs of your thought processes should not be contagious to others, then your model says that your beliefs are not themselves evidence, meaning they are not entangled with reality.”
This seems false. Should LW thinkers take it as a problem that our methods are usually completely lost on, for example, fundamentalist scientologists? In fact, I don’t think it’s a stretch to claim that most people do not subscribe to LW methods, does that suggest a problem with LW methods? Do LW methods fail the test of being contagious and therefore fail the test of being reliable methods for acquiring evidence?
Scientologists believe that any method that wasn’t invented/used by Ron Hubbard is bad. As such they are not open to evaluate a method on their merits and failure to convince them isn’t a sign of failure of a method for acquiring evidence.
It depends on how likely the respective explanations are.
I think it depends on that, and only that, and should be completely disconnected from any social criteria such as “being contagious.”
Also, Eliezer writes, “If your model of reality suggests that the outputs of your thought processes should not be contagious to others, then your model says that your beliefs are not themselves evidence, meaning they are not entangled with reality.”
This seems false. Should LW thinkers take it as a problem that our methods are usually completely lost on, for example, fundamentalist scientologists? In fact, I don’t think it’s a stretch to claim that most people do not subscribe to LW methods, does that suggest a problem with LW methods? Do LW methods fail the test of being contagious and therefore fail the test of being reliable methods for acquiring evidence?
I think this should be more like “then your model offers weak evidence that your beliefs are not themselves evidence”.
If you’re Galileo and find yourself incapable of convincing the church about heliocentrism, this doesn’t mean you’re wrong.
Edit: g addresses this nicely.
“Should LW thinkers take it as a problem...”
Yes to all of that. There are many problems with LW methods and beliefs, and those problems impede other people from seeing the parts that are right.
Scientologists believe that any method that wasn’t invented/used by Ron Hubbard is bad. As such they are not open to evaluate a method on their merits and failure to convince them isn’t a sign of failure of a method for acquiring evidence.
Sure. Scientologists are not close to being the only ones who disagree with LW’s mistakes.
I think “should” here means “justified,” not necessarily “likely.”
Your (rational) beliefs should be considered evidence by the irrational, even though they likely won’t be.