I think the evidence shows that the current Chinese COVID surge is going to fade. Although the national numbers are still increasing, that’s due to COVID spreading to many different cities. Within each city, the case numbers plateau or drop a week or two into lockdowns.
These are the daily new case numbers for Beijing (upper line is asymptomatic cases, lower line is symptomatic).
Compare this to cities that haven’t yet entered full lockdown (Shanghai) and still have acceleration in case numbers.
I would only expect COVID breakout if the daily increase continues a month into lockdown in a major city. Do you think that is physically possible? I genuinely don’t know.
I think the evidence shows that the current Chinese COVID surge is going to fade. Although the national numbers are still increasing, that’s due to COVID spreading to many different cities. Within each city, the case numbers plateau or drop a week or two into lockdowns.
These are the daily new case numbers for Beijing (upper line is asymptomatic cases, lower line is symptomatic).
Compare this to cities that haven’t yet entered full lockdown (Shanghai) and still have acceleration in case numbers.
I would only expect COVID breakout if the daily increase continues a month into lockdown in a major city. Do you think that is physically possible? I genuinely don’t know.