My impression is that celibacy pledges do something, although maybe not abstinence education, but I don’t trust much of what I read, since it’s so politicized. The article you link to says that it doesn’t prevent sex before marriage, but that’s a pretty high bar. The paper I was talking about (I added a citation above) says that it delays sex by 18 months; that just doesn’t get you past marriage. Here is a paper that claims pledges do nothing, that earlier results didn’t control for enough.
Let’s not worry about absolute effect and instead look for robust results. I think it’s robust that seeking abstinence leads to less birth control and a higher ratio of STDs to pregnancies. Also, the point of my original claim, about embattled minorities, is robust to that kind of selection bias.
My impression is that celibacy pledges do something, although maybe not abstinence education, but I don’t trust much of what I read, since it’s so politicized. The article you link to says that it doesn’t prevent sex before marriage, but that’s a pretty high bar. The paper I was talking about (I added a citation above) says that it delays sex by 18 months; that just doesn’t get you past marriage. Here is a paper that claims pledges do nothing, that earlier results didn’t control for enough.
Let’s not worry about absolute effect and instead look for robust results. I think it’s robust that seeking abstinence leads to less birth control and a higher ratio of STDs to pregnancies. Also, the point of my original claim, about embattled minorities, is robust to that kind of selection bias.