If you want to debate [...] or how likely a US default actually is, please start a separate discussion.
This one is actually rather fundamental to this subject. Deciding whether, to what degree and in what manner to hedge against a risk depends rather heavily on how likely that risk is.
Small risk, large consequences, half the probability density on the next thirty or so days, the rest smeared across at least a year (short-term debt-ceiling increases with a replay of the standoff every few months).
Too late to fundamentally restructure my finances, at the moment I’m looking at simply having some liquid cash and stocking up on store-able goods ahead of time on credit so I can make payments for them with devalued future dollars if a default happens or pay them off immediately if it doesn’t.
This one is actually rather fundamental to this subject. Deciding whether, to what degree and in what manner to hedge against a risk depends rather heavily on how likely that risk is.
I guess a thoughtful examination of probability is on topic.
What I wanted to avoid are smug dismissals of probability of default being so close to zero that it isn’t worth worrying about.
Small risk, large consequences, half the probability density on the next thirty or so days, the rest smeared across at least a year (short-term debt-ceiling increases with a replay of the standoff every few months).
Too late to fundamentally restructure my finances, at the moment I’m looking at simply having some liquid cash and stocking up on store-able goods ahead of time on credit so I can make payments for them with devalued future dollars if a default happens or pay them off immediately if it doesn’t.