If by default you mean that the U.S. doesn’t pay T-bond holders, I would put the probably of this happening at below 10%. If it does happen it would have, to a first approximation, zero effect on the economy since everyone would anticipate that bond holders would eventually be fully compensated with interest.
I thought it’s an all-or-nothing deal—either they can pay all their debts or they cannot pay any of them. That there is no law putting priority one class of creditors over another, unlike a corporation where bond holders are paid first.
How would the market’s anticipation of T-bond holders not being paid look, and at what point would it begin? Is the market currently showing signs of anticipating a delay in payments to bond-holders? How would we expect the market to react if its anticipations are miscalibrated?
For the U.S. federal government revenues greatly exceed interest on all debts, even with no additional borrowing. I’ve never heard of the “all-or-nothing deal” theory before.
How would we expect the market to react if its anticipations are miscalibrated?
Given how much money is at stake, and the depth of the financial market for T-bonds, and the fact that it is legal for congressional staffers to engage in insider trading, I’m sure that anticipations on this are very well calibrated.
Given how much money is at stake, and the depth of the financial market for T-bonds, and the fact that it is legal for congressional staffers to engage in insider trading, I’m sure that anticipations on this are very well calibrated.
Ah, now that would be useful information. Do you know if congressional staffers have to file some sort of disclosures when they make trades? If there’s a site where such disclosures are published, that might be what’s needed to infer what mix of actual and fake insanity we’re dealing with here, and which way they’re expecting things to go.
So, even if a frank default happens later this month you predict only a modest recession?
If by default you mean that the U.S. doesn’t pay T-bond holders, I would put the probably of this happening at below 10%. If it does happen it would have, to a first approximation, zero effect on the economy since everyone would anticipate that bond holders would eventually be fully compensated with interest.
I thought it’s an all-or-nothing deal—either they can pay all their debts or they cannot pay any of them. That there is no law putting priority one class of creditors over another, unlike a corporation where bond holders are paid first.
How would the market’s anticipation of T-bond holders not being paid look, and at what point would it begin? Is the market currently showing signs of anticipating a delay in payments to bond-holders? How would we expect the market to react if its anticipations are miscalibrated?
For the U.S. federal government revenues greatly exceed interest on all debts, even with no additional borrowing. I’ve never heard of the “all-or-nothing deal” theory before.
Given how much money is at stake, and the depth of the financial market for T-bonds, and the fact that it is legal for congressional staffers to engage in insider trading, I’m sure that anticipations on this are very well calibrated.
I guess I meant, the treasury has no legal authority to decide which obligations are paid and which aren’t.
http://www.businessinsider.com/can-the-treasury-prioritize-payments-if-the-debt-ceiling-is-breached-2013-10
Ah, now that would be useful information. Do you know if congressional staffers have to file some sort of disclosures when they make trades? If there’s a site where such disclosures are published, that might be what’s needed to infer what mix of actual and fake insanity we’re dealing with here, and which way they’re expecting things to go.
Part of the way they get paid is by providing info to hedge funds and then getting high paying jobs after they leave Congress with the hedge funds.