I don’t think that learning more about finance will put you into a position to be as good as people with a lot of inside information about Washington at understanding it.
Perhaps, but I’d be wary about assuming that the average Wall Street figure with inside information on Washington is setting a good example for how to operate rationally on that information. The impression I get from the books I’ve read discussing the work of Wall Street insiders is that they are, on average, quite good at operating under “business as usual” conditions, but that those who are well calibrated for events outside of the norm are very much in the minority. Prior to the fact, we are probably not in a good position to identify who those well-calibrated people are.
Perhaps, but I’d be wary about assuming that the average Wall Street figure with inside information on Washington is setting a good example for how to operate rationally on that information. The impression I get from the books I’ve read discussing the work of Wall Street insiders is that they are, on average, quite good at operating under “business as usual” conditions, but that those who are well calibrated for events outside of the norm are very much in the minority. Prior to the fact, we are probably not in a good position to identify who those well-calibrated people are.