While I do appreciate the vibe of this post, and think that balls were dropped here, I think you fail to flag the massive hindsight bias going on here—we ended up in one possible world, but there are so many possible worlds we might have incorrectly prepared for!
Ah, thanks I hadn’t noticed that one. I’m a fan of putting this kind of thing early on, not just at the end—it’s pretty easy to come across as attacking people, or “man aren’t people dumb for not noticing this” without clearly noticing biases like this up front.
While I do appreciate the vibe of this post, and think that balls were dropped here, I think you fail to flag the massive hindsight bias going on here—we ended up in one possible world, but there are so many possible worlds we might have incorrectly prepared for!
100% agreed—I thought I had flagged the complete hindsight bias by saying that it is obvious in retrospect.
The post was a genuine attempt to ask why it was not a clear path before.
Ah, thanks I hadn’t noticed that one. I’m a fan of putting this kind of thing early on, not just at the end—it’s pretty easy to come across as attacking people, or “man aren’t people dumb for not noticing this” without clearly noticing biases like this up front.
I’ve added an Edit to the post to include that right up front.
Thanks!