What’s the expected utility of that compared to the expected utility of AGW? If you’re too uncertain, why not just try to drastically reduce emissions instead of do major geoengineering? What’s the expected utility of reducing emissions?
The current understanding of climate sensitivity is that since Carbon Dioxide gas will remain in the upper atmosphere for decades (and possibly centuries) even a complete halt on emissions will not avert warming predicted for the next century or so. And the models currently favored have pretty dire predictions for that level of warming, even if they’re less severe than the alternative.
The only realistic solution, and naturally the one most strongly opposed by environmental groups, is solar radiation management. This would be very expensive, about $700M a year according to David Keith, and has potential risks which should be tested before any implementation plan. So not a silver bullet, but still much cheaper and safer in the long run than the standard environmental agenda even according to their own data.
(Note: I am assuming for the sake of argument that current climate models are accurate, but that is an assumption which should be questioned. Climate modeling is still in it’s infancy and most existing models have difficulty with predictions even as close as a decade out. Warming is probably happening but that does not mean that any given prediction of warming is accurate, for reasons which should be obvious.)
The current understanding of climate sensitivity is that since Carbon Dioxide gas will remain in the upper atmosphere for decades (and possibly centuries) even a complete halt on emissions will not avert warming predicted for the next century or so.
Methane has a shorter lifetime, though (though my five minutes’ research tells me we’ve already stopped increasing methane emissions).
Are you saying that solar radiation management is an alternative to long-term emissions reduction? Or that, in addition to eventually tapering off greenhouse gas emissions, we’re going to have to do something to keep temperatures down, and the best option is solar radiation management?
(edit: apparently I wrote social radiation management)
Reducing emissions is a good goal, but energy needs will continue to increase even as we decrease the number of tons of carbon dioxide per kWh. As the population increases and becomes more wealthy there’s not much we can do but put out more carbon dioxide; that’s one of the reasons people bent on lowering world population and wealth have attached themselves to the environmental movement.
If the stigma against nuclear power goes away, or the technological issues which make speculative energy sources like wind/solar/fusion unprofitable are resolved, we could see a bigger dip but even then the century-long trend will probably be one of increase. SRM is the most realistic way I can think of to head off serious disasters until then.
The current understanding of climate sensitivity is that since Carbon Dioxide gas will remain in the upper atmosphere for decades (and possibly centuries) even a complete halt on emissions will not avert warming predicted for the next century or so. And the models currently favored have pretty dire predictions for that level of warming, even if they’re less severe than the alternative.
The only realistic solution, and naturally the one most strongly opposed by environmental groups, is solar radiation management. This would be very expensive, about $700M a year according to David Keith, and has potential risks which should be tested before any implementation plan. So not a silver bullet, but still much cheaper and safer in the long run than the standard environmental agenda even according to their own data.
(Note: I am assuming for the sake of argument that current climate models are accurate, but that is an assumption which should be questioned. Climate modeling is still in it’s infancy and most existing models have difficulty with predictions even as close as a decade out. Warming is probably happening but that does not mean that any given prediction of warming is accurate, for reasons which should be obvious.)
Methane has a shorter lifetime, though (though my five minutes’ research tells me we’ve already stopped increasing methane emissions).
Are you saying that solar radiation management is an alternative to long-term emissions reduction? Or that, in addition to eventually tapering off greenhouse gas emissions, we’re going to have to do something to keep temperatures down, and the best option is solar radiation management?
(edit: apparently I wrote social radiation management)
Reducing emissions is a good goal, but energy needs will continue to increase even as we decrease the number of tons of carbon dioxide per kWh. As the population increases and becomes more wealthy there’s not much we can do but put out more carbon dioxide; that’s one of the reasons people bent on lowering world population and wealth have attached themselves to the environmental movement.
If the stigma against nuclear power goes away, or the technological issues which make speculative energy sources like wind/solar/fusion unprofitable are resolved, we could see a bigger dip but even then the century-long trend will probably be one of increase. SRM is the most realistic way I can think of to head off serious disasters until then.