I don’t see what advantage this approach has over the existing Metaculus predictions.
Do you believe that your framing of the issue by speaking about doomsday instead of making predictions about more well-defined scenarios is an improvement?
Do you believe that your questions about “within X years” have an advantage over Metaculus more broad distributions?
Do you believe that recruitment via an opinionated post is likely to somehow give a better sense than Metaculus as a more neutral instance?
I don’t see what advantage this approach has over the existing Metaculus predictions.
Do you believe that your framing of the issue by speaking about doomsday instead of making predictions about more well-defined scenarios is an improvement?
Do you believe that your questions about “within X years” have an advantage over Metaculus more broad distributions?
Do you believe that recruitment via an opinionated post is likely to somehow give a better sense than Metaculus as a more neutral instance?