Most of the predicted dates are “soon” on a civilization timescale, not a personal one.
For example, some vague medians around 2030-2070 sorts of ranges for timescale to the first AGI with outliers on both sides, and peak existential risk something like 1-20 year ranges after that. Very few people are predicting high probability of apocalypse in less than a decade.
If that devalues the predictions for you, then I’m not sure what you were expecting. As already stated, the general cloud of predictions seems to have recently moved shorter, rather than continuously longer as you were expecting. It may move longer and/or shorter again in the future as new evidence arises.
Most of the predicted dates are “soon” on a civilization timescale, not a personal one.
For example, some vague medians around 2030-2070 sorts of ranges for timescale to the first AGI with outliers on both sides, and peak existential risk something like 1-20 year ranges after that. Very few people are predicting high probability of apocalypse in less than a decade.
If that devalues the predictions for you, then I’m not sure what you were expecting. As already stated, the general cloud of predictions seems to have recently moved shorter, rather than continuously longer as you were expecting. It may move longer and/or shorter again in the future as new evidence arises.