The Demon King donned a mortal guise, bought shares in “The Demon King will attack the Frozen Fortress”, and then attacked the Frozen Fortress.
I’m curious: didn’t the market work exactly as intended here? I mean, it helped them anticipate the Demon King’s next moves – it’s not the market’s fault that they couldn’t convert foresight into operational superiority.
The King effectively sold good information on his battle plans; he voluntarily leaked military secrets against pay. The Citadel does not have to employ a spy network, because the King spies for them. This should be kind of a good deal, right?
If you think I missed the point, can you explain in more detail?
Here is my model: Demon king buys shares in “The Demon King will attack the Frozen Fortress”, then sends some small technically-an-attack to the fortress so the market resolves yes, and knowing this will be done is not worth the money lost to the Demon King on the market. No serious-battle plans or military secrets are leaked, and more generally the Demon King would only do this if the information revealed weren’t worth the market cost. (i.e. it’s a central kind of prediction market outcome manipulation, i.e. exploiting how this prediction market assumed a kind of metaphysical gap between predictors and the world / knowledge and action)
Do you disagree with this, or think it’s true but misses the point, in which case what was the point?
The Demon King does not solely attack the Frozen Fortress to profit on prediction markets. The story tells us that the demons engage in regular large-scale attacks, large enough to serve as demon population control. There is no indication that these attacks decreased in size when they were accompanied with market manipulation (and if they did, that would be a win in and of itself).
So the prediction market’s counterfactual is not that the Demon King’s forces don’t attack, but that they attack at an indeterminate time with the same approximate frequency and strength. By letting the Demon King buy and profit from “demon attack on day X” shares, the Circular Citadel learns with decently high probability when these attacks take place and can allocate its resources more effectively. Hire mercenaries on days the probability is above 90%, focus on training and recruitment on days of low-but-typical probability, etc.
This ability to allocate resources more efficiently has value, which is why the Heroine organized the prediction market in the first place. The only thing that doesn’t go according to the Heroine’s liking is that the Circular Citadel buys that information from the Demon King rather than from ‘the invisible hand of the market’.
more generally the Demon King would only do this if the information revealed weren’t worth the market cost
The Demon King would sell the information as soon as she thinks it is in her best interests, which is different from it being bad for the Circular Citadel. Especially considering the Circular Citadel doesn’t even have to pay the full cost of the information—everyone who bets is also paying.
It is very possible that the Demon King and the Circular Citadel both profit from the prediction market existing, while the demon ground forces and naive prediction market bettors lose.
If you read the entire story, you’ll find that the Demon King (who, by the way, is called “she” a whole bunch of times througout most of the story), never has any intention or expectation of taking the fortress. That’s probably the only “military secret” that really matters. And she doesn’t sell that secret.
But the Summoned Heroine doesn’t know that until the end, and it’s stated that she specifically set up the market to “help them anticipate and counter the Demon King’s next moves”.
I’m curious: didn’t the market work exactly as intended here? I mean, it helped them anticipate the Demon King’s next moves – it’s not the market’s fault that they couldn’t convert foresight into operational superiority.
The King effectively sold good information on his battle plans; he voluntarily leaked military secrets against pay. The Citadel does not have to employ a spy network, because the King spies for them. This should be kind of a good deal, right?
The demon king only made those moves to profit from the market, they wouldn’t have been made otherwise
Yes, that is the price she got for giving the information.
If you think I missed the point, can you explain in more detail?
Here is my model: Demon king buys shares in “The Demon King will attack the Frozen Fortress”, then sends some small technically-an-attack to the fortress so the market resolves yes, and knowing this will be done is not worth the money lost to the Demon King on the market. No serious-battle plans or military secrets are leaked, and more generally the Demon King would only do this if the information revealed weren’t worth the market cost. (i.e. it’s a central kind of prediction market outcome manipulation, i.e. exploiting how this prediction market assumed a kind of metaphysical gap between predictors and the world / knowledge and action)
Do you disagree with this, or think it’s true but misses the point, in which case what was the point?
The Demon King does not solely attack the Frozen Fortress to profit on prediction markets. The story tells us that the demons engage in regular large-scale attacks, large enough to serve as demon population control. There is no indication that these attacks decreased in size when they were accompanied with market manipulation (and if they did, that would be a win in and of itself).
So the prediction market’s counterfactual is not that the Demon King’s forces don’t attack, but that they attack at an indeterminate time with the same approximate frequency and strength. By letting the Demon King buy and profit from “demon attack on day X” shares, the Circular Citadel learns with decently high probability when these attacks take place and can allocate its resources more effectively. Hire mercenaries on days the probability is above 90%, focus on training and recruitment on days of low-but-typical probability, etc.
This ability to allocate resources more efficiently has value, which is why the Heroine organized the prediction market in the first place. The only thing that doesn’t go according to the Heroine’s liking is that the Circular Citadel buys that information from the Demon King rather than from ‘the invisible hand of the market’.
The Demon King would sell the information as soon as she thinks it is in her best interests, which is different from it being bad for the Circular Citadel. Especially considering the Circular Citadel doesn’t even have to pay the full cost of the information—everyone who bets is also paying.
It is very possible that the Demon King and the Circular Citadel both profit from the prediction market existing, while the demon ground forces and naive prediction market bettors lose.
If you read the entire story, you’ll find that the Demon King (who, by the way, is called “she” a whole bunch of times througout most of the story), never has any intention or expectation of taking the fortress. That’s probably the only “military secret” that really matters. And she doesn’t sell that secret.
The soldiers guarding the outer wall and the Citadel treasurer that pays their overtime wages would beg to differ.
But the Summoned Heroine doesn’t know that until the end, and it’s stated that she specifically set up the market to “help them anticipate and counter the Demon King’s next moves”.