Whether it’s worth picking up a $20 bill depends on
The chance that you are the first person to notice it and pick it up, if it’s an actual $20 bill
The ratio of real $20 bills to fake ones
The gain in finding a real $20 bill, compared to the loss in picking up a fake one.
The odds for #2 and #3 are pretty high compared to the odds of similar activities when playing the market. The odds of #1 vary depending on how well travelled the place is but are generally a lot higher than for whether you’re the first person to notice an opportunity in the market.
Of course, #1 is also affected by how many people use this entire chain of reasoning and conclude it;’s not worth picking up the bill, but the other factors are so important that this hardly matters.
The way I see it, in practical terms, it’s always worth picking up. I’ve picked up a number of fake bills. I keep them. It’s better than leaving them to torment each successive person who picks it up until someone else does it instead.
Whether it’s worth picking up a $20 bill depends on
The chance that you are the first person to notice it and pick it up, if it’s an actual $20 bill
The ratio of real $20 bills to fake ones
The gain in finding a real $20 bill, compared to the loss in picking up a fake one.
The odds for #2 and #3 are pretty high compared to the odds of similar activities when playing the market. The odds of #1 vary depending on how well travelled the place is but are generally a lot higher than for whether you’re the first person to notice an opportunity in the market.
Of course, #1 is also affected by how many people use this entire chain of reasoning and conclude it;’s not worth picking up the bill, but the other factors are so important that this hardly matters.
The way I see it, in practical terms, it’s always worth picking up. I’ve picked up a number of fake bills. I keep them. It’s better than leaving them to torment each successive person who picks it up until someone else does it instead.