Right, I agree, my 5% $34000 is only slightly Pascalian. I’m only using the Pascal reference because it is the best representative example I know of the general class of such scenarios (note that other “Pascalian” scenarios of this type are fairly common in the investment world; every startup crank loves throwing out the whole “if you think there’s only a 0.1% chance I’m right, you’ll get an EV of $100b 0.001 = $100m” line). If you know of a better name for the category, please share. I also used the Drake Equation as an analogy elsewhere in that r/buttcoin thread; perhaps that might be a better fit.
Right, I agree, my 5% $34000 is only slightly Pascalian. I’m only using the Pascal reference because it is the best representative example I know of the general class of such scenarios (note that other “Pascalian” scenarios of this type are fairly common in the investment world; every startup crank loves throwing out the whole “if you think there’s only a 0.1% chance I’m right, you’ll get an EV of $100b 0.001 = $100m” line). If you know of a better name for the category, please share. I also used the Drake Equation as an analogy elsewhere in that r/buttcoin thread; perhaps that might be a better fit.
I’m not sure what a better term would be. Maybe ‘lottery tickets’, but that is still too low probability/high reward for what we are talking about.