It’s an interesting situation, and I can see the parallel to Newcombe’s Problem. I’m not certain that it’s possible for a person to self-modify to the extent that he will never leave his wife, ever, regardless of the very real (if small) doubts he has about the relationship right now. I don’t think I could ever simultaneously sustain the thoughts “There’s about a 10% chance that my marriage to my wife will make me very unhappy” and “I will never leave her no matter what”. I could make the commitment financially—that, even if the marriage turns awful, I will still provide the same financial support to her—but not emotionally. If Joe can modify his own code so that he can do that, that’s very good of him, but I don’t think many people could do it, not without pre-commitment in the form of a marital contract with large penalties for divorce, or at least a very strong mentality that once the vows are said, there’s no going back.
Perhaps the problem would be both more realistic and more mathematically tractable if “sincerity” were rated between 0 and 1, rather than being a simple on/off state? If 1 is “till death do us part” and 0 is “until I get a better offer”, then 0.9 could be “I won’t leave you no matter how bad your cooking gets, but if you ever try to stab me, I’m out of here”. Then Kate’s probability of accepting the proposal could be a function of sincerity, which seems a much more reasonable position for her.
Could this be an example where rationality and self-awareness really do work against an actor? If Joe were less self-aware, he could propose with complete sincerity, having not thought through the 10% chance that he’ll be unhappy. If he does become unhappy, he’d then feel justified in this totally unexpected change inducing him to leave. The thing impeding Joe’s ability to propose with full sincerity is his awareness of the possibility of future unhappiness.
Also, it’s worth pointing out that, by the formulation of the original problem, Kate expects Joe to stay with her even if she is causing him −125 megautilons of unhappiness by forcing him to stay. That seems just a touch selfish. This is something they should talk about.
It’s an interesting situation, and I can see the parallel to Newcombe’s Problem. I’m not certain that it’s possible for a person to self-modify to the extent that he will never leave his wife, ever, regardless of the very real (if small) doubts he has about the relationship right now. I don’t think I could ever simultaneously sustain the thoughts “There’s about a 10% chance that my marriage to my wife will make me very unhappy” and “I will never leave her no matter what”. I could make the commitment financially—that, even if the marriage turns awful, I will still provide the same financial support to her—but not emotionally. If Joe can modify his own code so that he can do that, that’s very good of him, but I don’t think many people could do it, not without pre-commitment in the form of a marital contract with large penalties for divorce, or at least a very strong mentality that once the vows are said, there’s no going back.
Perhaps the problem would be both more realistic and more mathematically tractable if “sincerity” were rated between 0 and 1, rather than being a simple on/off state? If 1 is “till death do us part” and 0 is “until I get a better offer”, then 0.9 could be “I won’t leave you no matter how bad your cooking gets, but if you ever try to stab me, I’m out of here”. Then Kate’s probability of accepting the proposal could be a function of sincerity, which seems a much more reasonable position for her.
Could this be an example where rationality and self-awareness really do work against an actor? If Joe were less self-aware, he could propose with complete sincerity, having not thought through the 10% chance that he’ll be unhappy. If he does become unhappy, he’d then feel justified in this totally unexpected change inducing him to leave. The thing impeding Joe’s ability to propose with full sincerity is his awareness of the possibility of future unhappiness.
Also, it’s worth pointing out that, by the formulation of the original problem, Kate expects Joe to stay with her even if she is causing him −125 megautilons of unhappiness by forcing him to stay. That seems just a touch selfish. This is something they should talk about.