I agree that one of the benefits of exports as a metric for nation states is that it’s a way of showing that real value is being created, in ways that cannot be easily distorted. Domestic consumers also do this, but can be distorted. I disagree with other things.
China is the classic example of a trade surplus resulting from subsidies, and it seems to be mostly subsidizing production, some consumption, and not subsidizing exports. The US subsidizes many things, but mostly production and consumption.
If China and the US were in a competition to run the largest trade surplus, then I would expect the surplus to fluctuate more based on changes in US and China policy. Electing a US government that cared more about the surplus, relative to other factors, and was more competent, should lead to changes. There are shifts over time, but they don’t make sense in those terms.
Countries have switched from trade surpluses to deficits. Japan seems like a clean example—it had a solid trade surplus and now fluctuates. This coincides with an aging population that wants to “cash in its excess trade tokens”, or at least live off the returns they generate. It also coincides with Fukushima making it harder to run a surplus.
I agree that one of the benefits of exports as a metric for nation states is that it’s a way of showing that real value is being created, in ways that cannot be easily distorted. Domestic consumers also do this, but can be distorted. I disagree with other things.
China is the classic example of a trade surplus resulting from subsidies, and it seems to be mostly subsidizing production, some consumption, and not subsidizing exports. The US subsidizes many things, but mostly production and consumption.
If China and the US were in a competition to run the largest trade surplus, then I would expect the surplus to fluctuate more based on changes in US and China policy. Electing a US government that cared more about the surplus, relative to other factors, and was more competent, should lead to changes. There are shifts over time, but they don’t make sense in those terms.
Countries have switched from trade surpluses to deficits. Japan seems like a clean example—it had a solid trade surplus and now fluctuates. This coincides with an aging population that wants to “cash in its excess trade tokens”, or at least live off the returns they generate. It also coincides with Fukushima making it harder to run a surplus.