but I don’t think these examples seem well-described as not having precedents / lots of societal and cultural preconditions
I totally think there are lots of cultural preconditions and precedents, I just think they mostly don’t look like “small protests for many years that gradually or even suddenly grew into larger ones”. My best guess is if you see a protest movement not have substantial growth for many months, it’s unlikely to start growing, and it’s not that valuable to have started it earlier (and somewhat likely to have a bit of an inoculation effect, though I also don’t think that effect is that big).
I think my model is more “if there’s an incident that increases the salience of AI x risk concerns, then an existing social movement structure that can catalyze this will be very valuable” which is different from assuming that Pause AI by itself will drive that.
In a similar way then, say, after Fukushima in Germany the existence of a strong environmental movement facilitated mass protests whereas in other countries ~nothing happened despite objectively the same external shock.
Yep!
I totally think there are lots of cultural preconditions and precedents, I just think they mostly don’t look like “small protests for many years that gradually or even suddenly grew into larger ones”. My best guess is if you see a protest movement not have substantial growth for many months, it’s unlikely to start growing, and it’s not that valuable to have started it earlier (and somewhat likely to have a bit of an inoculation effect, though I also don’t think that effect is that big).
Thanks for clarifying, I can see that.
I think my model is more “if there’s an incident that increases the salience of AI x risk concerns, then an existing social movement structure that can catalyze this will be very valuable” which is different from assuming that Pause AI by itself will drive that.
In a similar way then, say, after Fukushima in Germany the existence of a strong environmental movement facilitated mass protests whereas in other countries ~nothing happened despite objectively the same external shock.