Something along those lines, but anyway, how does that NOT bring this decision into the realm of calculation?
Thinking about it soberly, the framing of this problem reveals even more of a lack of serious scrutiny of its premises. A rational thinker’s first question ought to be: How is it even possible to construct a decision tree that predicts my intentions with near-perfect success before I myself am aware of them? The accuracy of such a system would depend on knowledge of human neurology, time travel, and/or who knows what else, that our civilization is nowhere near obtaining, placing the calculation of odds associated with this problem far beyond the purview of present day science. (IOW, I believe the failure to reason along lines that combine statistics with real world scientific understanding is responsible for the problem’s rather mystical overtones at first sight. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain! And really, rare events are rare, but they do happen, and are no less real on account of their rarity.)
In any case, thanks for the response.
(Actually, I’m not even clear on the direction of causality under the predictor’s hood. Suppose the alien gazes into a crystal ball showing a probable future and notes down my choice. If so, then he can see the course of action he’d probably go with as well! If he changes that choice, does that say anything about my fidelity to the future he saw? Depends on the mechanism of his crystal ball, among many other things. Or does he scan my brain and simply simulate the chemical reactions it will undergo in the next five minutes? How accurate is the model carrying out this simulation? How predictable is the outcome via these techniques in the first place? There are such murky depths here that no matter what method one imagines, the considerations based on which he ultimately places the million dollars is of supreme importance.)
(What, total karma doesn’t reach the negatives? Why not?)
Yes, now I have long-term goals within the community! Or will no one read what I say if it gets too low? That’d be lame, but no matter. I could always keep this account for speaking the truth, and another one for posting the stuff I want other people to see.
Something along those lines, but anyway, how does that NOT bring this decision into the realm of calculation?
Thinking about it soberly, the framing of this problem reveals even more of a lack of serious scrutiny of its premises. A rational thinker’s first question ought to be: How is it even possible to construct a decision tree that predicts my intentions with near-perfect success before I myself am aware of them? The accuracy of such a system would depend on knowledge of human neurology, time travel, and/or who knows what else, that our civilization is nowhere near obtaining, placing the calculation of odds associated with this problem far beyond the purview of present day science. (IOW, I believe the failure to reason along lines that combine statistics with real world scientific understanding is responsible for the problem’s rather mystical overtones at first sight. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain! And really, rare events are rare, but they do happen, and are no less real on account of their rarity.)
In any case, thanks for the response.
(Actually, I’m not even clear on the direction of causality under the predictor’s hood. Suppose the alien gazes into a crystal ball showing a probable future and notes down my choice. If so, then he can see the course of action he’d probably go with as well! If he changes that choice, does that say anything about my fidelity to the future he saw? Depends on the mechanism of his crystal ball, among many other things. Or does he scan my brain and simply simulate the chemical reactions it will undergo in the next five minutes? How accurate is the model carrying out this simulation? How predictable is the outcome via these techniques in the first place? There are such murky depths here that no matter what method one imagines, the considerations based on which he ultimately places the million dollars is of supreme importance.)
(What, total karma doesn’t reach the negatives? Why not?)
It does, but it won’t display that way. Karma of negative two will display as zero until three or more points are added.
Yes, now I have long-term goals within the community! Or will no one read what I say if it gets too low? That’d be lame, but no matter. I could always keep this account for speaking the truth, and another one for posting the stuff I want other people to see.
Apart from the sidebar at the right of top posters, I—and I suspect many others—never look at total karma accumulated just at individual posts.