I show you a coin. I tell you that it’s a normal coin. I toss it 100 times. Every time it lands heads. The next time I toss it, what is the chance of it landing tails?
For those of you who said 50%, let me phrase the question another way: Given I have tossed a coin 100 times and it’s landed heads every time, what is the probability that the coin is unbiased?
In fact. Let’s simplify the thought experiment:
I show you a coin. I tell you that it’s a normal coin. I toss it 100 times. Every time it lands heads. The next time I toss it, what is the chance of it landing tails?
For those of you who said 50%, let me phrase the question another way: Given I have tossed a coin 100 times and it’s landed heads every time, what is the probability that the coin is unbiased?