If your choice is not made up from your prior mind state, then Omega would not be able to predict your actions from it.
Not necessarily. We don’t know how Omega makes his predictions.
But regardless, I think my fundamental point still stands: the debate is over physics/reality, not decision theory. If the question specified how physics/reality works, the decision theory part would be easy.
Indeed- to make it more clear, consider a prior mind state that says “when presented with this, I’ll flip a coin to decide (or look at some other random variable).” In this situation, Omega can, at best, predict your choice with 50⁄50 odds. Whether Omega is even a coherent idea depends a great deal on your model of choices.
Not necessarily. We don’t know how Omega makes his predictions.
But regardless, I think my fundamental point still stands: the debate is over physics/reality, not decision theory. If the question specified how physics/reality works, the decision theory part would be easy.
Indeed- to make it more clear, consider a prior mind state that says “when presented with this, I’ll flip a coin to decide (or look at some other random variable).” In this situation, Omega can, at best, predict your choice with 50⁄50 odds. Whether Omega is even a coherent idea depends a great deal on your model of choices.