So, I’m sure this isn’t an original thought but there are a lot of comments and my utility function is rolling its eyes at the thought of going through them all to see whether this comment is redundant, as compared to writing the comment given I want to sort my thoughts out verbally anyway.
I think the standard form of the question should be changed to the one with the asteroid. Total destruction is total destruction, but money is only worth a) what you can buy with it and b) the effort it takes to earn it.
I can earn $1000 in a month. Some people could earn it in a week. What is the difference between $1m and $1m + $1000? Yes, it’s technically a higher number, but in terms of my life that is not a statistically significant difference. Of course I’d rather definitely have $1m than risk having nothing for the possibility of having $1m + $1000.
The causal decision theory versions of this problem don’t look ridiculous because they take the safe option, they look ridiculous because the utility of two-boxing is not significant in comparison with the potential utility of one-boxing. That is, a one-boxer doesn’t lose much if they’re wrong: IF box 2 already contained nothing when they chose it, they only missed their chance at $1000, whereas IF box 2 already contained $1m a two-boxer misses their chance at $1m.
Obviously an advanced decision theory needs a way to rank the potential risks—if you postulate it as the asteroid, the risk is much more concrete.
shortly after posting this I realised that the value to me of $1000 is only relevant if you assume the odds of Omega predicting your actions correctly are 50/50ish. Need to think about this some more.
So, I’m sure this isn’t an original thought but there are a lot of comments and my utility function is rolling its eyes at the thought of going through them all to see whether this comment is redundant, as compared to writing the comment given I want to sort my thoughts out verbally anyway.
I think the standard form of the question should be changed to the one with the asteroid. Total destruction is total destruction, but money is only worth a) what you can buy with it and b) the effort it takes to earn it.
I can earn $1000 in a month. Some people could earn it in a week. What is the difference between $1m and $1m + $1000? Yes, it’s technically a higher number, but in terms of my life that is not a statistically significant difference. Of course I’d rather definitely have $1m than risk having nothing for the possibility of having $1m + $1000.
The causal decision theory versions of this problem don’t look ridiculous because they take the safe option, they look ridiculous because the utility of two-boxing is not significant in comparison with the potential utility of one-boxing. That is, a one-boxer doesn’t lose much if they’re wrong: IF box 2 already contained nothing when they chose it, they only missed their chance at $1000, whereas IF box 2 already contained $1m a two-boxer misses their chance at $1m.
Obviously an advanced decision theory needs a way to rank the potential risks—if you postulate it as the asteroid, the risk is much more concrete.
shortly after posting this I realised that the value to me of $1000 is only relevant if you assume the odds of Omega predicting your actions correctly are 50/50ish. Need to think about this some more.