If its model is good enough that it violates the Second Law as we understand it, fine, I’ll pick only Box B, but I don’t see anything in the problem statement that implies this. The only evidence that I’m given is that it’s made a run of perfect predictions (of unknown length!), is smarter than us, and is from very far away. That’s not enough for new physics.
And just having a really good simulation of my brain, of the sort that we could imagine doing using known physics but just don’t have the technical capacity for, is definitely not good enough. That makes the probability that I’ll act as predicted very high, but I’ll still come out worse if, after the boxes have been set, I’m unlucky enough to only pick Box B anyway (or come out better if I’m lucky enough to pick both boxes anyway, if Omega pegs me for a one-boxer).
If its model is good enough that it violates the Second Law as we understand it [...]
It doesn’t have to be even remotely close to good enough to that for the scenario. I’d bet a sufficiently good human psychologist could take omega’s role and get it 90%+ right if he tests and interviews the people extensively first (without them knowing the purpose) and gets to exclude people he is unsure about. A super intelligent being should be far, far better at this.
You yourself claim to know what you would do in the boxing experiment, and you are an agent limited by conventional physics. There is no physical law that forbids another agent from knowing you as well as (or even better than) you know yourself.
You’ll have to explain why you think 99.99% (or whatever) is not good enough, a 0.01% chance to win $ 1000 shouldn’t make up for a 99.99% chance of losing $999,000.
If its model is good enough that it violates the Second Law as we understand it, fine, I’ll pick only Box B, but I don’t see anything in the problem statement that implies this. The only evidence that I’m given is that it’s made a run of perfect predictions (of unknown length!), is smarter than us, and is from very far away. That’s not enough for new physics.
And just having a really good simulation of my brain, of the sort that we could imagine doing using known physics but just don’t have the technical capacity for, is definitely not good enough. That makes the probability that I’ll act as predicted very high, but I’ll still come out worse if, after the boxes have been set, I’m unlucky enough to only pick Box B anyway (or come out better if I’m lucky enough to pick both boxes anyway, if Omega pegs me for a one-boxer).
It doesn’t have to be even remotely close to good enough to that for the scenario. I’d bet a sufficiently good human psychologist could take omega’s role and get it 90%+ right if he tests and interviews the people extensively first (without them knowing the purpose) and gets to exclude people he is unsure about. A super intelligent being should be far, far better at this.
You yourself claim to know what you would do in the boxing experiment, and you are an agent limited by conventional physics. There is no physical law that forbids another agent from knowing you as well as (or even better than) you know yourself.
You’ll have to explain why you think 99.99% (or whatever) is not good enough, a 0.01% chance to win $ 1000 shouldn’t make up for a 99.99% chance of losing $999,000.