If in 35 AD you were told that there were only 100 people who had seen Jesus dead and entombed and then had seen him alive afterwards, and that there were no people who had seen him dead and entombed who had seen his dead body afterwards, would you believe he had been resurrected?
In Newcomb’s problem as stated, we are told 100 people have gotten the predicted answer. Then no matter how unlikely our priors put on a superintelligent alien being able to predict what we would do, we should accept this as proof.
This seems like a pretty symmetric question to me. A one boxer should say, if consistent, sure, 100 people saw it it is true. No matter what priors we put on the resurrection of Jesus being true.
To me, it is incredibly more likely that either people are lying to me, or at least being wrong. I have seen magicians make things appear and disappear in boxes that were already sealed, after they left. It is WAY more likely that this is some kind of test and/or scam.
Which is not to say I wouldn’t one-box, I would! Whatever scam Omega is running, I’d rather have the million dollars, or prove Omega a fraud by finding an empty box, then to have only $1000, or prove Omega wrong by finding a full box and having $1001000.
And this is precisely what I would announce to the people before publicly opening the one box, and this is, if it is not a fraud, Omega would have known I would do.
As ot 100 times to prove something that unlikely? Siegrfied and Roy have made thousands of tigers appear and disappear in cages they could not have had sufficient access too. As odd as they are, it is unlikely (IMHO) that they are superintelligent aliens.
If in 35 AD you were told that there were only 100 people who had seen Jesus dead and entombed and then had seen him alive afterwards, and that there were no people who had seen him dead and entombed who had seen his dead body afterwards, would you believe he had been resurrected?
In Newcomb’s problem as stated, we are told 100 people have gotten the predicted answer. Then no matter how unlikely our priors put on a superintelligent alien being able to predict what we would do, we should accept this as proof.
This seems like a pretty symmetric question to me. A one boxer should say, if consistent, sure, 100 people saw it it is true. No matter what priors we put on the resurrection of Jesus being true.
To me, it is incredibly more likely that either people are lying to me, or at least being wrong. I have seen magicians make things appear and disappear in boxes that were already sealed, after they left. It is WAY more likely that this is some kind of test and/or scam.
Which is not to say I wouldn’t one-box, I would! Whatever scam Omega is running, I’d rather have the million dollars, or prove Omega a fraud by finding an empty box, then to have only $1000, or prove Omega wrong by finding a full box and having $1001000.
And this is precisely what I would announce to the people before publicly opening the one box, and this is, if it is not a fraud, Omega would have known I would do.
As ot 100 times to prove something that unlikely? Siegrfied and Roy have made thousands of tigers appear and disappear in cages they could not have had sufficient access too. As odd as they are, it is unlikely (IMHO) that they are superintelligent aliens.