Pascal’s Mugging arguments are used to address two questions. One is “why can’t the mugger extract money from people by offering them arbitrarily large sums of money tomorrow in exchange for a small amount of money today?” This is the situation I have sketched.
The other is “why, when offered two propositions of equal expected value, do we prefer the one with a lower payoff and higher probability?” I think the situation you have articulated is more relevant to this question. What do you think?
Pascal’s Mugging arguments are used to address two questions. One is “why can’t the mugger extract money from people by offering them arbitrarily large sums of money tomorrow in exchange for a small amount of money today?” This is the situation I have sketched.
The other is “why, when offered two propositions of equal expected value, do we prefer the one with a lower payoff and higher probability?” I think the situation you have articulated is more relevant to this question. What do you think?