That is indeed somewhat similar to the “Hansonian adjustment” approach to solving the Mugging, when larger numbers come into play. Hanson originally suggested that, conditional on the claim that 3^^^^3 distinct people will come into existence, we should need a lot of evidence to convince us we’re the one with a unique opportunity to determine almost all of their fates. It seems like such claims should be penalized by a factor of 1/3^^^^3. We can perhaps extend this so it applies to causal nodes as well as people. That idea seems more promising to me than bounded utility, which implies that even a selfish agent would be unable to share many goals with its future self (and technically, even a simple expected value calculation takes time.)
Your numbers above are, at least, more credible than saying there’s a 1⁄512 chance someone will offer you a chance to pick between a billion US dollars and one hundred million.
That is indeed somewhat similar to the “Hansonian adjustment” approach to solving the Mugging, when larger numbers come into play. Hanson originally suggested that, conditional on the claim that 3^^^^3 distinct people will come into existence, we should need a lot of evidence to convince us we’re the one with a unique opportunity to determine almost all of their fates. It seems like such claims should be penalized by a factor of 1/3^^^^3. We can perhaps extend this so it applies to causal nodes as well as people. That idea seems more promising to me than bounded utility, which implies that even a selfish agent would be unable to share many goals with its future self (and technically, even a simple expected value calculation takes time.)
Your numbers above are, at least, more credible than saying there’s a 1⁄512 chance someone will offer you a chance to pick between a billion US dollars and one hundred million.