Ha, this is very far from being a precise enough prediction to score, unfortunately. But I’d love to do better! If you have suggestions for precise forecasts that I could make, based on the more qualitative and vague stuff I’ve said, I’d love to hear them!
How would you use a Brier score on this going forward? Also ran across this podcast last night on bias. https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/want-better-forecasting-silence-the-noise/
Ha, this is very far from being a precise enough prediction to score, unfortunately. But I’d love to do better! If you have suggestions for precise forecasts that I could make, based on the more qualitative and vague stuff I’ve said, I’d love to hear them!