I think also a part of it is: Hype doesn’t correlate 100% with actual capabilities of latest models. I predict that over the next two years the hype will grow, partly due to capability increases but also partly due to more people interacting with the tech more. The “man on the street” still hasn’t heard of GPT-3 or GPT-2 or DALL-E or whatever. I talked to an old friend working at a tech company the other day—he even did some basic ML stuff for his job—and he hadn’t heard of it. Then the hype will probably crash as unrealistic expectations fail to be met. But lol I’m just guessing, I am much less confident in all this than I am in my general views on timelines and takeoff, and I’m not exactly confident in those.
I think also a part of it is: Hype doesn’t correlate 100% with actual capabilities of latest models. I predict that over the next two years the hype will grow, partly due to capability increases but also partly due to more people interacting with the tech more. The “man on the street” still hasn’t heard of GPT-3 or GPT-2 or DALL-E or whatever. I talked to an old friend working at a tech company the other day—he even did some basic ML stuff for his job—and he hadn’t heard of it. Then the hype will probably crash as unrealistic expectations fail to be met. But lol I’m just guessing, I am much less confident in all this than I am in my general views on timelines and takeoff, and I’m not exactly confident in those.