Fun stuff by 2026: (i.e. aspects of the canonical What 2026 Looks Like storyline that probably aren’t relevant to anything important, but I’m adding them in anyway because it was fun to think about.)
Disclaimer: I made these numbers up from memory, could get much better numbers by looking up stats.Also, I suspect that these predictions err a bit on the optimistic side.
VR
10x more VR headsets sold per year. 3x more games made primarily for VR, 3x higher average budget. Headsets are noticeably higher quality without being more expensive; the cheapest ones are $200.
3D printing
10x more metal stuff gets 3D printed these days, though it’s hard for ordinary consumers to notice this. Prices have dropped, etc. Fans of miniatures and tabletop games now routinely use 3D printed resin models and the like.
SpaceX
Starship basically works now. Artemis and DearMoon have happened. The public is getting excited about space again. It’s amazing and glorious.
Starlink is fully operational, and raking in cash for SpaceX. Quality of internet connection in rural areas, on planes, etc. is going way up. Thanks to the pandemic, lots of people are living in beautiful cheap places and working remotely, and Starlink makes it possible to do this in the backwoods instead of just away from major cities.
Asteroid mining is now something lots of people take seriously. Everyone can see a path to $20/kg LEO launch costs by 2030, and are designing missions accordingly.
Cyborg stuff:
Neuralink has had a successful human trial. They are working on artificial limbs.
Tesla’s prototype humanoid robot has caught up to Boston Dynamics. Still isn’t available to the public, but there is a lot of hype now as they try to figure out how to mass-produce the thing. Unclear how big the market will be. It certainly won’t be automating away millions of jobs anytime soon though.
Self-driving cars still aren’t a thing. However, Tesla’s Level 2 is pretty good.
Cars
Tesla at 3.5 million vehicles sold per year. Total EV market is about 10M, 10% of total.
It’s being heavily regulated now, like the Internet, to the point where much of its original purpose has been subverted.
On the bright side, crypto investments have outperformed tech stocks (which themselves outperformed the stock market, which has been doing great these past five years).
Various dapps and DeFi things are more mainstream now. In particular, prediction markets are 100x bigger than they were in 2020!
Fun stuff by 2026: (i.e. aspects of the canonical What 2026 Looks Like storyline that probably aren’t relevant to anything important, but I’m adding them in anyway because it was fun to think about.)
Disclaimer: I made these numbers up from memory, could get much better numbers by looking up stats. Also, I suspect that these predictions err a bit on the optimistic side.
VR
10x more VR headsets sold per year. 3x more games made primarily for VR, 3x higher average budget. Headsets are noticeably higher quality without being more expensive; the cheapest ones are $200.
3D printing
10x more metal stuff gets 3D printed these days, though it’s hard for ordinary consumers to notice this. Prices have dropped, etc. Fans of miniatures and tabletop games now routinely use 3D printed resin models and the like.
SpaceX
Starship basically works now. Artemis and DearMoon have happened. The public is getting excited about space again. It’s amazing and glorious.
Starlink is fully operational, and raking in cash for SpaceX. Quality of internet connection in rural areas, on planes, etc. is going way up. Thanks to the pandemic, lots of people are living in beautiful cheap places and working remotely, and Starlink makes it possible to do this in the backwoods instead of just away from major cities.
Asteroid mining is now something lots of people take seriously. Everyone can see a path to $20/kg LEO launch costs by 2030, and are designing missions accordingly.
Cyborg stuff:
Neuralink has had a successful human trial. They are working on artificial limbs.
Robots
Boston Dynamics Spot robot and copycats are now at 100,000 units sold. (400 by end of 2020 Boston Dynamics’ Spot adds self-charging to live at remote sites forever—The Verge). The price has dropped 5x, to $15,000 per robot, and they have a lot more skills and features. Longer battery life, too.
Tesla’s prototype humanoid robot has caught up to Boston Dynamics. Still isn’t available to the public, but there is a lot of hype now as they try to figure out how to mass-produce the thing. Unclear how big the market will be. It certainly won’t be automating away millions of jobs anytime soon though.
Self-driving cars still aren’t a thing. However, Tesla’s Level 2 is pretty good.
Cars
Tesla at 3.5 million vehicles sold per year. Total EV market is about 10M, 10% of total.
Energy
Solar power costs half as much as it did in 2019. It’s really starting to overtake coal, natural gas, etc. in a big way. Lots of people are talking about the “solar revolution.” The price of solar electricity has dropped 89% in 10 years (fastcompany.com)
Crypto
It’s being heavily regulated now, like the Internet, to the point where much of its original purpose has been subverted.
On the bright side, crypto investments have outperformed tech stocks (which themselves outperformed the stock market, which has been doing great these past five years).
Various dapps and DeFi things are more mainstream now. In particular, prediction markets are 100x bigger than they were in 2020!