As a minor note, observe that claims of extraordinary rationality do not necessarily contradict claims of irrationality. The sanity waterline is very low.
Do you mean to imply in context here that the organizational management of SIAI at the time under discussion was above average for a nonprofit organization? Or are you just making a more general statement that a system can be irrational while demonstrating above average rationality? I certainly agree with the latter.
Are you comparing it to the average among nonprofits started, or nonprofits extant? I would guess that it was well below average for extant nonprofits, but about or slightly above average for started nonprofits. I’d guess that most nonprofits are started by people who don’t know what they’re doing and don’t know what they don’t know, and that SI probably did slightly better because the people who were being a bit stupid were at least very smart, which can help. However, I’d guess that most such nonprofits don’t live long because they don’t find a Peter Thiel to keep them alive.
Your assessment looks about right to me. I have considerable experience of averagely-incompetent nonprofits, and SIAI looks normal to me. I am strongly tempted to grab that “For Dummies” book and, if it’s good, start sending copies to people …
I don’t see what’s the point to comparing to average nonprofits. Average for-profits don’t realize any profit, and average non-profits just waste money.
I would say SIAI is best paralleled to average started ‘research’ organization that is developing some free energy something, run by non-scientists, with some hired scientists as chaff.
Sadly, I agree. Unless you look at it very closely, SIAI pattern-matches to “crackpots trying to raise money to fund their crackpottiness” fairly well. (What saves them is that their ideas are a lot better than the average crackpot.)
Or are you just making a more general statement that a system can be irrational while demonstrating above average rationality?
Yes, this.
On an arbitrary scale I just made up, below 100 degrees of rationality is “irrational”, and 0 degrees of rationality is “ordinary”. 50 is extraordinarily rational and yet irrational.
50 while you’re thinking you’re at 100 is being an extraordinary loser (overconfidence leads to big failures)
In any case this is just word play. Holden seen many organizations that are/were more rational, that’s probably what he means by lack of extraordinary rationality.
As a minor note, observe that claims of extraordinary rationality do not necessarily contradict claims of irrationality. The sanity waterline is very low.
Do you mean to imply in context here that the organizational management of SIAI at the time under discussion was above average for a nonprofit organization? Or are you just making a more general statement that a system can be irrational while demonstrating above average rationality? I certainly agree with the latter.
Are you comparing it to the average among nonprofits started, or nonprofits extant? I would guess that it was well below average for extant nonprofits, but about or slightly above average for started nonprofits. I’d guess that most nonprofits are started by people who don’t know what they’re doing and don’t know what they don’t know, and that SI probably did slightly better because the people who were being a bit stupid were at least very smart, which can help. However, I’d guess that most such nonprofits don’t live long because they don’t find a Peter Thiel to keep them alive.
Your assessment looks about right to me. I have considerable experience of averagely-incompetent nonprofits, and SIAI looks normal to me. I am strongly tempted to grab that “For Dummies” book and, if it’s good, start sending copies to people …
In the context of thomblake’s comment, I suppose nonprofits started is the proper reference class.
I don’t see what’s the point to comparing to average nonprofits. Average for-profits don’t realize any profit, and average non-profits just waste money.
I would say SIAI is best paralleled to average started ‘research’ organization that is developing some free energy something, run by non-scientists, with some hired scientists as chaff.
Sadly, I agree. Unless you look at it very closely, SIAI pattern-matches to “crackpots trying to raise money to fund their crackpottiness” fairly well. (What saves them is that their ideas are a lot better than the average crackpot.)
Yes, this.
On an arbitrary scale I just made up, below 100 degrees of rationality is “irrational”, and 0 degrees of rationality is “ordinary”. 50 is extraordinarily rational and yet irrational.
50 while you’re thinking you’re at 100 is being an extraordinary loser (overconfidence leads to big failures)
In any case this is just word play. Holden seen many organizations that are/were more rational, that’s probably what he means by lack of extraordinary rationality.