Understanding “random guy on the Internet” to mean something like an Internet user all I know about whom is that they are interested in building AGI and willing to put some concerted effort into the project… hrm… yeah, I’ll accept e-7 as within my range.
My estimate for an actual random person on the Internet building AGI in, say, the next decade, has a ceiling of e-10 or so, but I don’t have a clue what its lower bound is.
That said, I’m not sure how well-correlated the willingness of a “random guy on the Internet” (meaning 1) to try to build AGI without taking precautions is to the willingness of someone whose chances are orders of magnitude higher to do so.
Then again, we have more compelling lines of evidence leading us to expect humans to not take precautions.
My estimate for an actual random person on the Internet building AGI in, say, the next decade, has a ceiling of e-10 or so, but I don’t have a clue what its lower bound is.
(I had to read that three times before getting why that number was 1000 times smaller than the other one, because I kept on misinterpreting “random person”. Try “randomly-chosen person”.)
I have no idea what you understood “random person” to mean, if not randomly chosen person. I’m also curious now as to whether whatever-that-is is what EY meant in the first place.
A stranger, esp. one behaving in weird ways; this appears to me to be the most common meaning of that word in 21st-century English when applied to a person. (Older speakers might be unfamiliar with it, but the median LWer is 25 years old, as of the latest survey.) And I also had taken the indefinite article to be an existential quantifier; hence, I had effectively interpreted the statement as “at least one actual strange person on the Internet building AGI in the next decade”, for which I thought such a low probability would be ridiculous.
Understanding “random guy on the Internet” to mean something like an Internet user all I know about whom is that they are interested in building AGI and willing to put some concerted effort into the project… hrm… yeah, I’ll accept e-7 as within my range.
My estimate for an actual random person on the Internet building AGI in, say, the next decade, has a ceiling of e-10 or so, but I don’t have a clue what its lower bound is.
That said, I’m not sure how well-correlated the willingness of a “random guy on the Internet” (meaning 1) to try to build AGI without taking precautions is to the willingness of someone whose chances are orders of magnitude higher to do so.
Then again, we have more compelling lines of evidence leading us to expect humans to not take precautions.
(I had to read that three times before getting why that number was 1000 times smaller than the other one, because I kept on misinterpreting “random person”. Try “randomly-chosen person”.)
I have no idea what you understood “random person” to mean, if not randomly chosen person. I’m also curious now as to whether whatever-that-is is what EY meant in the first place.
A stranger, esp. one behaving in weird ways; this appears to me to be the most common meaning of that word in 21st-century English when applied to a person. (Older speakers might be unfamiliar with it, but the median LWer is 25 years old, as of the latest survey.) And I also had taken the indefinite article to be an existential quantifier; hence, I had effectively interpreted the statement as “at least one actual strange person on the Internet building AGI in the next decade”, for which I thought such a low probability would be ridiculous.
Thanks for clarifying.