Software improvements can be used by humans in the form of expert systems (tools), which will diminish the relative advantage of AGI.
Any human-in-the-loop system can be grossly outclassed because of Amdahl’s law. A human managing a superintilligence that thinks 1000X faster, for example, is a misguided, not-even-wrong notion. This is also not idle speculation, an early constrained version of this scenario is already playing out as we speak in finacial markets.
What I meant is that if an AGI was in principle be able to predict the financial markets (I doubt it), then many human players using the same predictive algorithms will considerably diminish the efficiency with which an AGI is able to predict the market. The AGI would basically have to predict its own predictive power acting on the black box of human intentions.
And I don’t think that Amdahl’s law really makes a big dent here. Since human intention is complex and probably introduces unpredictable factors. Which is as much of a benefit as it is a slowdown, from the point of view of a competition for world domination.
Another question with respect to Amdahl’s law is what kind of bottleneck any human-in-the-loop would constitute. If humans used an AGI’s algorithms as expert systems on provided data sets in combination with a army of robot scientists, how would static externalized agency / planning algorithms (humans) slow down the task to the point of giving the AGI a useful advantage? What exactly would be 1000X faster in such a case?
What I meant is that if an AGI was in principle be able to predict the financial markets (I doubt it), then many human players using the same predictive algorithms will considerably diminish the efficiency with which an AGI is able to predict the market.
The HFT robotraders operate on millisecond timescales. There isn’t enough time for a human to understand, let alone verify, the agent’s decisions. There are no human players using the same predictive algorithms operating in this environment.
Now if you zoom out to human timescales, then yes there are human-in-the-loop trading systems. But as HFT robotraders increase in intelligence, they intrude on that domain. If/when general superintelligence becomes cheap and fast enough, the humans will no longer have any role.
If an autonomous superintelligent AI is generating plans complex enough that even a team of humans would struggle to understand given weeks of analysis, and the AI is executing those plans in seconds or milliseconds, then there is little place for a human in that decision loop.
To retain control, a human manager will need to grant the AGI autonomy on larger timescales in proportion to the AGI’s greater intelligence and speed, giving it bigger and more abstract hierachical goals. As an example, eventually you get to a situation where the CEO just instructs the AGI employees to optimize the bank account directly.
Another question with respect to Amdahl’s law is what kind of bottleneck any human-in-the-loop would constitute.
Compare the two options as complete computational systems: human + semi-autonomous AGI vs autonomous AGI. Human brains take on the order of seconds to make complex decisions, so in order to compete with autonomous AGIs, the human will have to either 1.) let the AGI operate autonomously for at least seconds at a time, or 2.) suffer a speed penalty where the AGI sits idle, waiting for the human response.
For example, imagine a marketing AGI creates ads, each of which may take a human a minute to evaluate (which is being generous). If the AGI thinks 3600X faster than human baseline, and a human takes on the order of hours to generate an ad, it would generate ads in seconds. The human would not be able to keep up, and so would have to back up a level of heirarachy and grant the AI autonomy over entire ad campaigns, and more realistically, the entire ad company. If the AGI is truly superintelligent, it can come to understand what the human actually wants at a deeper level, and start acting on anticipated and even implied commands. In this scenario I expect most human managers would just let the AGI sort out ‘work’ and retire early.
Well, I don’t disagree with anything you wrote and believe that the economic case for a fast transition from tools to agents is strong.
I also don’t disagree that an AGI could take over the world if in possession of enough resources and tools like molecular nanotechnology. I even believe that a sub-human-level AGI would be sufficient to take over if handed advanced molecular nanotechnology.
Sadly these discussions always lead to the point where one side assumes the existence of certain AGI designs with certain superhuman advantages, specific drives and specific enabling circumstances. I don’t know of anyone who actually disagrees that such AGI’s, given those specific circumstances, would be an existential risk.
I don’t see this as so sad, if we are coming to something of a consensus on some of the sub-issues.
This whole discussion chain started (for me) with a question of the form, “given a superintelligence, how could it actually become an existential risk?”
I don’t necessarily agree with the implied LW consensus on the liklihood of various AGI designs, specific drives, specific circumstances, or most crucially, the actual distribution over future AGI goals, so my view may be much closer to yours than this thread implies.
But my disagreements are mainly over details. I foresee the most likely AGI designs and goal systems as being vaguely human-like, which entails a different type of risk. Basically I’m worried about AGI’s with human inspired motivational systems taking off and taking control (peacefully/economically) or outcompeting us before we can upload in numbers, and a resulting sub-optimal amount of uploading, rather than paperclippers.
But my disagreements are mainly over details. I foresee the most likely AGI designs and goal systems as being vaguely human-like, which entails a different type of risk. Basically I’m worried about AGI’s with human inspired motivational systems taking off and taking control (peacefully/economically) or outcompeting us before we can upload in numbers, and a resulting sub-optimal amount of uploading, rather than paperclippers.
Yes, human-like AGI’s are really scary. I think a fabulous fictional treatment here is ‘Blindsight’ by Peter Watts, where humanity managed to resurrect vampires. More: Gurl ner qrcvpgrq nf angheny uhzna cerqngbef, n fhcreuhzna cflpubcnguvp Ubzb trahf jvgu zvavzny pbafpvbhfarff (zber enj cebprffvat cbjre vafgrnq) gung pna sbe rknzcyr ubyq obgu nfcrpgf bs n Arpxre phor va gurve urnqf ng gur fnzr gvzr. Uhznaf erfheerpgrq gurz jvgu n qrsvpvg gung jnf fhccbfrq gb znxr gurz pbagebyynoyr naq qrcraqrag ba gurve uhzna znfgref. Ohg bs pbhefr gung’f yvxr n zbhfr gelvat gb ubyq n png nf crg. V guvax gung abiry fubjf zber guna nal bgure yvgrengher ubj qnatrebhf whfg n yvggyr zber vagryyvtrapr pna or. Vg dhvpxyl orpbzrf pyrne gung uhznaf ner whfg yvxr yvggyr Wrjvfu tveyf snpvat n Jnssra FF fdhnqeba juvyr oryvrivat gurl’yy tb njnl vs gurl bayl pybfr gurve rlrf.
To retain control, a human manager will need to grant the AGI autonomy on larger timescales in proportion to the AGI’s greater intelligence and speed, giving it bigger and more abstract hierachical goals. As an example, eventually you get to a situation where the CEO just instructs the AGI employees to optimize the bank account directly.
Nitpick: you mean “optimize shareholder value directly.” Keeping the account balances at an appropriate level is the CFO’s job.
What I meant is that if an AGI was in principle be able to predict the financial markets (I doubt it), then many human players using the same predictive algorithms will considerably diminish the efficiency with which an AGI is able to predict the market. The AGI would basically have to predict its own predictive power acting on the black box of human intentions.
And I don’t think that Amdahl’s law really makes a big dent here. Since human intention is complex and probably introduces unpredictable factors. Which is as much of a benefit as it is a slowdown, from the point of view of a competition for world domination.
Another question with respect to Amdahl’s law is what kind of bottleneck any human-in-the-loop would constitute. If humans used an AGI’s algorithms as expert systems on provided data sets in combination with a army of robot scientists, how would static externalized agency / planning algorithms (humans) slow down the task to the point of giving the AGI a useful advantage? What exactly would be 1000X faster in such a case?
The HFT robotraders operate on millisecond timescales. There isn’t enough time for a human to understand, let alone verify, the agent’s decisions. There are no human players using the same predictive algorithms operating in this environment.
Now if you zoom out to human timescales, then yes there are human-in-the-loop trading systems. But as HFT robotraders increase in intelligence, they intrude on that domain. If/when general superintelligence becomes cheap and fast enough, the humans will no longer have any role.
If an autonomous superintelligent AI is generating plans complex enough that even a team of humans would struggle to understand given weeks of analysis, and the AI is executing those plans in seconds or milliseconds, then there is little place for a human in that decision loop.
To retain control, a human manager will need to grant the AGI autonomy on larger timescales in proportion to the AGI’s greater intelligence and speed, giving it bigger and more abstract hierachical goals. As an example, eventually you get to a situation where the CEO just instructs the AGI employees to optimize the bank account directly.
Compare the two options as complete computational systems: human + semi-autonomous AGI vs autonomous AGI. Human brains take on the order of seconds to make complex decisions, so in order to compete with autonomous AGIs, the human will have to either 1.) let the AGI operate autonomously for at least seconds at a time, or 2.) suffer a speed penalty where the AGI sits idle, waiting for the human response.
For example, imagine a marketing AGI creates ads, each of which may take a human a minute to evaluate (which is being generous). If the AGI thinks 3600X faster than human baseline, and a human takes on the order of hours to generate an ad, it would generate ads in seconds. The human would not be able to keep up, and so would have to back up a level of heirarachy and grant the AI autonomy over entire ad campaigns, and more realistically, the entire ad company. If the AGI is truly superintelligent, it can come to understand what the human actually wants at a deeper level, and start acting on anticipated and even implied commands. In this scenario I expect most human managers would just let the AGI sort out ‘work’ and retire early.
Well, I don’t disagree with anything you wrote and believe that the economic case for a fast transition from tools to agents is strong.
I also don’t disagree that an AGI could take over the world if in possession of enough resources and tools like molecular nanotechnology. I even believe that a sub-human-level AGI would be sufficient to take over if handed advanced molecular nanotechnology.
Sadly these discussions always lead to the point where one side assumes the existence of certain AGI designs with certain superhuman advantages, specific drives and specific enabling circumstances. I don’t know of anyone who actually disagrees that such AGI’s, given those specific circumstances, would be an existential risk.
I don’t see this as so sad, if we are coming to something of a consensus on some of the sub-issues.
This whole discussion chain started (for me) with a question of the form, “given a superintelligence, how could it actually become an existential risk?”
I don’t necessarily agree with the implied LW consensus on the liklihood of various AGI designs, specific drives, specific circumstances, or most crucially, the actual distribution over future AGI goals, so my view may be much closer to yours than this thread implies.
But my disagreements are mainly over details. I foresee the most likely AGI designs and goal systems as being vaguely human-like, which entails a different type of risk. Basically I’m worried about AGI’s with human inspired motivational systems taking off and taking control (peacefully/economically) or outcompeting us before we can upload in numbers, and a resulting sub-optimal amount of uploading, rather than paperclippers.
Yes, human-like AGI’s are really scary. I think a fabulous fictional treatment here is ‘Blindsight’ by Peter Watts, where humanity managed to resurrect vampires. More: Gurl ner qrcvpgrq nf angheny uhzna cerqngbef, n fhcreuhzna cflpubcnguvp Ubzb trahf jvgu zvavzny pbafpvbhfarff (zber enj cebprffvat cbjre vafgrnq) gung pna sbe rknzcyr ubyq obgu nfcrpgf bs n Arpxre phor va gurve urnqf ng gur fnzr gvzr. Uhznaf erfheerpgrq gurz jvgu n qrsvpvg gung jnf fhccbfrq gb znxr gurz pbagebyynoyr naq qrcraqrag ba gurve uhzna znfgref. Ohg bs pbhefr gung’f yvxr n zbhfr gelvat gb ubyq n png nf crg. V guvax gung abiry fubjf zber guna nal bgure yvgrengher ubj qnatrebhf whfg n yvggyr zber vagryyvtrapr pna or. Vg dhvpxyl orpbzrf pyrne gung uhznaf ner whfg yvxr yvggyr Wrjvfu tveyf snpvat n Jnssra FF fdhnqeba juvyr oryvrivat gurl’yy tb njnl vs gurl bayl pybfr gurve rlrf.
That fictional treatment is interesting to the point of me actually looking up the book. But ..
The future is scary. Human-like AGI’s should not intrinsically be more scary than the future, accelerated.
Nitpick: you mean “optimize shareholder value directly.” Keeping the account balances at an appropriate level is the CFO’s job.