Hmm yeah, I read the post again and, if it’s a troll, it’s a way-more-subtle-than-typical one. Still, my posterior probability assignment on him being serious/sincere is in the 0.40s (extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence) -- though this means that the probability that he succeeds given that he’s serious is the same order of magnitude as the probability that he succeeds given everything I know.
I was being charitable. Also, I misread the original post; see the comments below.
Hmm yeah, I read the post again and, if it’s a troll, it’s a way-more-subtle-than-typical one. Still, my posterior probability assignment on him being serious/sincere is in the 0.40s (extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence) -- though this means that the probability that he succeeds given that he’s serious is the same order of magnitude as the probability that he succeeds given everything I know.