As time goes on it becomes increasingly possible that some small group or lone researcher is able to put the final pieces together and develop an AGI.
Why do you think this is the case? Is this just because the overall knowledge level concerning AI goes up over time? If so, what makes you think that that rate of increase is anything large enough to be significant?
Yes. This is just the way of invention in general: steady incremental evolutionary progress.
A big well funded team can throw more computational resources into their particular solution for the problem, but the returns are sublinear (for any one particular solution) even without moore’s law.
Why do you think this is the case? Is this just because the overall knowledge level concerning AI goes up over time? If so, what makes you think that that rate of increase is anything large enough to be significant?
Yes. This is just the way of invention in general: steady incremental evolutionary progress.
A big well funded team can throw more computational resources into their particular solution for the problem, but the returns are sublinear (for any one particular solution) even without moore’s law.