Well it clarifies that the first of the three kind of directions was intended.
If that is a miss what do hits look like? If I have a belief of 50%, 50% coin at what point can I say that the distribution is “confirmed”. If the true distribution is 49.9999% vs 50.0001% and that counts as a miss that would make almost all beliefs to be misses with hits being rare theorethical possibiliies. So within rounding error all beliefs that reference probablities not 1 or 0 have meta-certainty 0.
Note that in calculating p-values the null hypothesis is not ever delineated a clear miss but there always remains a finite possiblity that noise was the source of the pattern.
I was trying to convey the same problem, although the underlying issue has much broader implications. Apparently johnswentworth is trying to solve a related problem but I’m currently not up to date with his posts so I can’t vouch for the quality. Being able to quantify empirical differences would solve a lot of different philosophical problems in one fell swoop, so that might be something I should look into for my masters degree.
Well it clarifies that the first of the three kind of directions was intended.
If that is a miss what do hits look like? If I have a belief of 50%, 50% coin at what point can I say that the distribution is “confirmed”. If the true distribution is 49.9999% vs 50.0001% and that counts as a miss that would make almost all beliefs to be misses with hits being rare theorethical possibiliies. So within rounding error all beliefs that reference probablities not 1 or 0 have meta-certainty 0.
Note that in calculating p-values the null hypothesis is not ever delineated a clear miss but there always remains a finite possiblity that noise was the source of the pattern.
I was trying to convey the same problem, although the underlying issue has much broader implications. Apparently johnswentworth is trying to solve a related problem but I’m currently not up to date with his posts so I can’t vouch for the quality. Being able to quantify empirical differences would solve a lot of different philosophical problems in one fell swoop, so that might be something I should look into for my masters degree.