Basically you are not speaking about Bayesian probability but about frequentist probability? If that’s the case it’s quite good to be explicit about it when you post on LessWrong where we usually mean the Bayesian thing.
In the sense the term probability is used in scientific realism, it’s defined about well-defined empiric events either happening or not happening. Event X has probability Y however isn’t an empiric event and thus it doesn’t have a probability the same way that empiric events do.
If it would be easy to define a meta-certainity metric, then it would be easy for you to reference a statistician who properly defined such a thing or a philosopher in the tradition of scientific realism. Even when it’s intuitively desireable to define such a thing it’s not easy to create it.
Basically you are not speaking about Bayesian probability but about frequentist probability? If that’s the case it’s quite good to be explicit about it when you post on LessWrong where we usually mean the Bayesian thing.
In the sense the term probability is used in scientific realism, it’s defined about well-defined empiric events either happening or not happening. Event X has probability Y however isn’t an empiric event and thus it doesn’t have a probability the same way that empiric events do.
If it would be easy to define a meta-certainity metric, then it would be easy for you to reference a statistician who properly defined such a thing or a philosopher in the tradition of scientific realism. Even when it’s intuitively desireable to define such a thing it’s not easy to create it.