Your “Ethan computed” distribution matches the intended/described distribution from my original prediction comment. The tail now looks uniform, while my distribution had an unintentional decay that came from me using Elicit’s smoothing.
Now that I see how uniform looks visually/accurately, it does look slightly odd (without any decay towards zero), and a bit arbitrary that the uniform distribution ends at 2100. So I think it makes a lot of sense to use Datscilly’s outside view as my outside view prior as you did! So overall, I think the ensembled distribution more accurately represents my beliefs, after updating on the other distributions in the LessWrong AGI timelines post.
The above ensemble distribution looks pretty optimistic, which makes me wonder if there is some “double counting” of scenarios-that-lead-to-AGI between the inside and outside view distributions. I.e., Datscilly’s outside view arguably does incorporate the possibility that we get AGI via “Prosaic AGI” as I described it.
Wow thanks for doing this! My takeaways:
Your “Ethan computed” distribution matches the intended/described distribution from my original prediction comment. The tail now looks uniform, while my distribution had an unintentional decay that came from me using Elicit’s smoothing.
Now that I see how uniform looks visually/accurately, it does look slightly odd (without any decay towards zero), and a bit arbitrary that the uniform distribution ends at 2100. So I think it makes a lot of sense to use Datscilly’s outside view as my outside view prior as you did! So overall, I think the ensembled distribution more accurately represents my beliefs, after updating on the other distributions in the LessWrong AGI timelines post.
The above ensemble distribution looks pretty optimistic, which makes me wonder if there is some “double counting” of scenarios-that-lead-to-AGI between the inside and outside view distributions. I.e., Datscilly’s outside view arguably does incorporate the possibility that we get AGI via “Prosaic AGI” as I described it.