A side-effect of Rationalists welcoming criticism is that this site has a number of high-karma users with a dislike of Rationalism and Rationalists.
There’s also a fair number of trolls/anti-socials on LessWrong, and if a single one of them was offered the chance to be a general, I expect they would gleefully launch their nukes irrespective of the payoff structure and the rest of the scenario.
I predict the underlying variable is:
Will any of the 10 generals afterwards be found to have previously posted substantial in-group criticism on LessWrong?
Conditional on YES, I assign 70% chance of a nuclear war.
Conditional on NO, I assign 10% chance of a nuclear war.
A side-effect of Rationalists welcoming criticism is that this site has a number of high-karma users with a dislike of Rationalism and Rationalists.
There’s also a fair number of trolls/anti-socials on LessWrong, and if a single one of them was offered the chance to be a general, I expect they would gleefully launch their nukes irrespective of the payoff structure and the rest of the scenario.
I predict the underlying variable is: Will any of the 10 generals afterwards be found to have previously posted substantial in-group criticism on LessWrong? Conditional on YES, I assign 70% chance of a nuclear war. Conditional on NO, I assign 10% chance of a nuclear war.
If a user hasn’t posted substantial in-group criticism, are they a rationalist?
Of course nuclear warfare is an escalation from posting critiques.