I looked for a manifold market on whether anyone gets nuked, and considered making one when I didn’t find it. But:
If the implied probability is high, generals might be more likely to push the button. So someone who wants someone to get nuked can buy YES.
If the implied probability is low, generals can get mana by buying YES and pushing the button. I… don’t think any of the generals will be very motivated by that? But not great.
’Tis I. Didn’t intend bad incentives, the stakes on that market are imo pretty tiny. But I N/Aed, I don’t want anyone suspecting that had affected the final outcome.
Mana is no longer exchangeable for directed charitable donations, so I would not expect generals to make their decisions based on the potential to win mana. Mana seems less valuable than karma, for example. This concern came up in 2022 and my writeup that year suggested it was unlikely to be a factor.
I looked for a manifold market on whether anyone gets nuked, and considered making one when I didn’t find it. But:
If the implied probability is high, generals might be more likely to push the button. So someone who wants someone to get nuked can buy YES.
If the implied probability is low, generals can get mana by buying YES and pushing the button. I… don’t think any of the generals will be very motivated by that? But not great.
So I decided not to.
Sometime else created it.
Grumble grumble unilateralists’ curse...
I know who created it. will let them know they shouldn’t have imo
’Tis I. Didn’t intend bad incentives, the stakes on that market are imo pretty tiny. But I N/Aed, I don’t want anyone suspecting that had affected the final outcome.
Mana is no longer exchangeable for directed charitable donations, so I would not expect generals to make their decisions based on the potential to win mana. Mana seems less valuable than karma, for example. This concern came up in 2022 and my writeup that year suggested it was unlikely to be a factor.
Yeah, if that was the only consideration I think I would have created the market myself.