HelloQuestonMark comments on [Completed] The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario

[HelloQuestonMark]

(I asked permission from the LW team before posting.)

The source code is currently available at https://​​github.com/​​ForumMagnum/​​ForumMagnum/​​compare/​​master...petrovSocialDeception.

const petrovFalseAlarmMissileCount = new DatabaseServerSetting<number[]>('petrovFalseAlarmMissileCount', [])
const petrovRealAttackMissileCount = new DatabaseServerSetting<number[]>('petrovRealAttackMissileCount', [])

const getIncomingCount = (incoming: boolean, role: 'eastPetrov' | 'westPetrov') => {
  const currentHour = new Date().getHours();
  const roleSeed = role === 'eastPetrov' ? 0 : 13;
  const seed = currentHour + roleSeed + (incoming ? 17 : 0); // Different seed for each hour, role, and incoming state

  const missileCountArray = incoming ? petrovRealAttackMissileCount.get() : petrovFalseAlarmMissileCount.get();

  const result = seed % missileCountArray.length
  console.log({currentHour, roleSeed, incoming, seed, result})
  return missileCountArray[result];
}

[HelloQuestonMark]

Considerations:

• This is very related to AI races. It’s probably better to not nuke anyone, even if you’re the only one doing that and you expect your somewhat for-profit AI lab shareholders to be, on average, happy about the decision to nuke.

• Please avoid nuking the other side, regardless of the payoffs for the generals. Remember your aesthetic preferences. It’s not that much karma, even if you somehow succeed.