Here’s something that comes up in many, many discussions of climate change and anything else where a lot of arguments come from models or simulations: sometimes you have to do the math to make a valid (counter-)argument.
Example:
A: …And so you, see, as CO2 increases, the mean global temperature will also increase.
B: That’s bullshit, and here’s why: as CO2 increases, there will be more photosynthesis—and the increased plant growth will consume all that extra CO2.
Another example (the one that motivated this comment):
A: And so, as long as the bus is carrying six or more passengers, it’ll be more efficient than the passenger-equivalent number of cars.
B: That’s bullshit! Buses are ten times heavier than cars, so it’s got to be ten or more bus passengers.
People often think that in discussions of quantitative phenomena, it’s enough to make arguments based purely on directional drivers/phenomena, when really the magnitudes of those drivers are hugely important. Of course there are negative feedbacks, countervailing forces, etc., but (a) usually they’re already dealt with in the original model and so B isn’t telling anyone anything new, and (b) magnitude matters.
I believe that in the first example, “A” is supposed to be right. In the second example, is “A” or “B” supposed to be right? B is doing the math, but assumes that fuel required is proportional to mass, which is wrong, due at least to engine size and air resistance. (Consider the (mass x miles)/gallon of a 2005 RST1000 Futura motorcycle (565 x 42 = 23730), a Smart car (1808lb x 40mpg = 72320), a 2010 Honda Civic DX-VP (2709 x 36 = 97524), and a 2010 Toyota Camry SE (3329 x 33 = 109857). All MPG are EPA highway estimates.)
By default, I expect your examples to take the same form (e.g., the counterargument is right in both cases, or wrong in both cases). Deviations from that pattern should be pointed out. Cases where doing math does not qualify as “doing the math” due to incompleteness should be pointed out.
(BTW, reminds me that Brad Templeton, founder of rec.humor.funny and the Oracle, gave a talk at the 2009 Singularity Summit in which he showed data claiming that mass transit typically has the same fuel efficiency as a car with 1.5-3 people in it. Because a mass transit trip (at least the ones I take) usually require you to travel a longer distance than you would by car, mass transit loses to one person in a fuel-efficient car for fuel efficiency. And the cost of mass transit is much higher per person-mile; and the time taken is about double (in the DC metro area). These facts combined suggest that mass transit is neutral or bad for the environment, bad for the passenger, and bad for the economy.)
I’d meant A to be right in both cases. And of course—against my own remonstration—I did none of the math myself. I was unfamiliar with the Templeton data. I looked it up, and it’s interesting. I’d note that while Templeton agrees that transit (by the system, not by the fully utilized vehicle) is less efficient than fuel-efficient personal transportation, he still thinks people should make use of existing transit systems.
Here’s something that comes up in many, many discussions of climate change and anything else where a lot of arguments come from models or simulations: sometimes you have to do the math to make a valid (counter-)argument.
Example:
A: …And so you, see, as CO2 increases, the mean global temperature will also increase.
B: That’s bullshit, and here’s why: as CO2 increases, there will be more photosynthesis—and the increased plant growth will consume all that extra CO2.
Another example (the one that motivated this comment):
A: And so, as long as the bus is carrying six or more passengers, it’ll be more efficient than the passenger-equivalent number of cars.
B: That’s bullshit! Buses are ten times heavier than cars, so it’s got to be ten or more bus passengers.
People often think that in discussions of quantitative phenomena, it’s enough to make arguments based purely on directional drivers/phenomena, when really the magnitudes of those drivers are hugely important. Of course there are negative feedbacks, countervailing forces, etc., but (a) usually they’re already dealt with in the original model and so B isn’t telling anyone anything new, and (b) magnitude matters.
I believe that in the first example, “A” is supposed to be right. In the second example, is “A” or “B” supposed to be right? B is doing the math, but assumes that fuel required is proportional to mass, which is wrong, due at least to engine size and air resistance. (Consider the (mass x miles)/gallon of a 2005 RST1000 Futura motorcycle (565 x 42 = 23730), a Smart car (1808lb x 40mpg = 72320), a 2010 Honda Civic DX-VP (2709 x 36 = 97524), and a 2010 Toyota Camry SE (3329 x 33 = 109857). All MPG are EPA highway estimates.)
By default, I expect your examples to take the same form (e.g., the counterargument is right in both cases, or wrong in both cases). Deviations from that pattern should be pointed out. Cases where doing math does not qualify as “doing the math” due to incompleteness should be pointed out.
(BTW, reminds me that Brad Templeton, founder of rec.humor.funny and the Oracle, gave a talk at the 2009 Singularity Summit in which he showed data claiming that mass transit typically has the same fuel efficiency as a car with 1.5-3 people in it. Because a mass transit trip (at least the ones I take) usually require you to travel a longer distance than you would by car, mass transit loses to one person in a fuel-efficient car for fuel efficiency. And the cost of mass transit is much higher per person-mile; and the time taken is about double (in the DC metro area). These facts combined suggest that mass transit is neutral or bad for the environment, bad for the passenger, and bad for the economy.)
I’d meant A to be right in both cases. And of course—against my own remonstration—I did none of the math myself. I was unfamiliar with the Templeton data. I looked it up, and it’s interesting. I’d note that while Templeton agrees that transit (by the system, not by the fully utilized vehicle) is less efficient than fuel-efficient personal transportation, he still thinks people should make use of existing transit systems.
I ride a bike.