Think about your judgments of confidence in terms of frequencies instead of probabilities—our frequency intuitions tend to be much closer to reality. If you estimate that you’re 90% sure of something, ask “if I faced ten similar problems, would I really get nine of them right?”
Think about your judgments of confidence in terms of frequencies instead of probabilities—our frequency intuitions tend to be much closer to reality. If you estimate that you’re 90% sure of something, ask “if I faced ten similar problems, would I really get nine of them right?”