Your point is that you’re forgetting about priors. This should also be Multiheaded’s point, however poorly expressed.
Our prior for “alien pranksters” is not high—the question is just how low it is compared to alternate explanations. Any reasonable priors assign vastly more probability that Multiheaded is human than… well, anything else, but even if we rejected that it would take a while before we got to aliens. The question of whether aliens or the supernatural is to be assigned higher probability when faced with something as striking as apparent manipulation of the physical constants underlying this universe is a much harder question.
I think we must be having different discussions, because I don’t understand what your point is, and you don’t seem to understand my point either.
Your point is that you’re forgetting about priors. This should also be Multiheaded’s point, however poorly expressed.
Our prior for “alien pranksters” is not high—the question is just how low it is compared to alternate explanations. Any reasonable priors assign vastly more probability that Multiheaded is human than… well, anything else, but even if we rejected that it would take a while before we got to aliens. The question of whether aliens or the supernatural is to be assigned higher probability when faced with something as striking as apparent manipulation of the physical constants underlying this universe is a much harder question.