Lee, the situations I talked about for convincing me that “2 + 2 = 3” could only actually occur if 2 + 2 actually equalled three within the realm of the integers. This is right and proper: why should I allow myself to be convinced by something that would not be valid evidence?
I do not, therefore, ever expect myself to actually encounter any of these situations, because I currently believe that 2 + 2 = 4.
If I expected to encounter such evidence in the future, the expectation of my probable future probability estimates must equal my present probability estimate, so I would have to not really believe that 2 + 2 = 4 in order to expect to encounter evidence that 2 + 2 = 3.
Lee, the situations I talked about for convincing me that “2 + 2 = 3” could only actually occur if 2 + 2 actually equalled three within the realm of the integers. This is right and proper: why should I allow myself to be convinced by something that would not be valid evidence?
I do not, therefore, ever expect myself to actually encounter any of these situations, because I currently believe that 2 + 2 = 4.
If I expected to encounter such evidence in the future, the expectation of my probable future probability estimates must equal my present probability estimate, so I would have to not really believe that 2 + 2 = 4 in order to expect to encounter evidence that 2 + 2 = 3.