Upvoted for interesting thinking about alternates to Bayes’ rule (or heuristics for when it’s inconvenient to use). I don’t think it’ll work for me, though—there’s enough variance that I don’t believe those point values, and the “point modifiers”, in cases I can think of, overwhelm the initial point scores anyway.
I think it IS a useful excercise to try to enumerate the trust and surprise values for multiple pieces of evidence for and against a proposition, but I don’t think that using a fixed point score for broad categories across different propositions is likely to work.
Upvoted for interesting thinking about alternates to Bayes’ rule (or heuristics for when it’s inconvenient to use). I don’t think it’ll work for me, though—there’s enough variance that I don’t believe those point values, and the “point modifiers”, in cases I can think of, overwhelm the initial point scores anyway.
I think it IS a useful excercise to try to enumerate the trust and surprise values for multiple pieces of evidence for and against a proposition, but I don’t think that using a fixed point score for broad categories across different propositions is likely to work.