Counterexamples: Religion (Essentially all of them that make claims about reality). Almost every macroeconomic theory. The War on Drugs. Abstinence-based sex education. Political positions too numerous and controversial to call out.
You are confused. I am not saying that false claims about reality cannot persist—I am saying that reality always wins.
When you die you don’t actually go to heaven—that’s Reality 1, Religion 0.
Besides, you need to look a bit more carefully at the motivations of the people involved. The goal of writing macroeconomic papers is not to reflect reality well, it is to produce publications in pursuit of tenure. The goal of the War on Drugs is not to stop drug use, it is to control the population and extract wealth. The goal of abstinence-based sex education is not to reduce pregnancy rates, it is to make certain people feel good about themselves.
I thought you were saying that reality has a pattern of convincing people of true beliefs
You misunderstood. Reality has the feature of making people face the true consequences of their actions regardless of their beliefs. That’s why reality always wins.
Sort of. Particularly in the case of belief in an afterlife, there isn’t a person still around to face the true consequences of their actions. And even in less extreme examples, people can still convince themselves that the true consequences of their actions are different—or have a different meaning—from what they really are.
And even in less extreme examples, people can still convince themselves that the true consequences of their actions are different—or have a different meaning—from what they really are.
In those cases reality can take more drastic measures.
Believing that 2 + 2 = 5 will most likely cause one to fail to build a successful airplane, but that does not prohibit one from believing that one’s own arithmetic is perfect, and that the incompetence of others, the impossibility of flight, or the condemnation of an airplane-hating god is responsible for the failure.
See my edit. Basically, the enemy airplanes flying overhead and dropping bombs should convince you that flight is indeed possible. Also any remaining desire you have it invent excuses will go away once one of the bombs explodes close enough to you.
The founders don’t get to decide whether or not it is a movement, or what goal it does or doesn’t have. It turns out that many founders in this case are also influential agents, but the influential agents I’ve talked to have expressed that they expect the world to be a better place if people generally make better decisions (in cases where objectively better decision-making is a meaningful concept).
The War on Drugs. Abstinence-based sex education. Political positions too numerous and controversial to call out.
Careful, those are the kind of political claims that where there is currently so much mind-kill that I wouldn’t trust much of the “evidence” you’re using to declare them obviously false.
The general claim is one where I think it would be better to test it on historical examples.
Of course. Stuffing fingers into your ears and going NA-NA-NA-NA-CAN’T-HEAR-YOU is a rather common debate tactic :-)
Don’t you observe people doing that to reality, rather than updating their beliefs?
That too. Though reality, of course, has ways of making sure its point of view prevails :-)
Reality has shown itself to be fairly ineffective in the short term (all of human history).
8-0
In my experience reality is very very effective. In the long term AND in the short term.
Counterexamples: Religion (Essentially all of them that make claims about reality). Almost every macroeconomic theory. The War on Drugs. Abstinence-based sex education. Political positions too numerous and controversial to call out.
You are confused. I am not saying that false claims about reality cannot persist—I am saying that reality always wins.
When you die you don’t actually go to heaven—that’s Reality 1, Religion 0.
Besides, you need to look a bit more carefully at the motivations of the people involved. The goal of writing macroeconomic papers is not to reflect reality well, it is to produce publications in pursuit of tenure. The goal of the War on Drugs is not to stop drug use, it is to control the population and extract wealth. The goal of abstinence-based sex education is not to reduce pregnancy rates, it is to make certain people feel good about themselves.
Wait, isn’t that pretty much tautological, given the definition of ‘reality’?
What’s your definition of reality?
I can’t get a very general definition while still being useful, but reality is what determines if a belief is true or false.
I thought you were saying that reality has a pattern of convincing people of true beliefs, not that reality is indifferent to belief.
You misunderstood. Reality has the feature of making people face the true consequences of their actions regardless of their beliefs. That’s why reality always wins.
Most of my definition of ‘true consequences’ matches my definition of ‘reality’.
Sort of. Particularly in the case of belief in an afterlife, there isn’t a person still around to face the true consequences of their actions. And even in less extreme examples, people can still convince themselves that the true consequences of their actions are different—or have a different meaning—from what they really are.
In those cases reality can take more drastic measures.
Edit: Here is the quote I should have linked to.
Believing that 2 + 2 = 5 will most likely cause one to fail to build a successful airplane, but that does not prohibit one from believing that one’s own arithmetic is perfect, and that the incompetence of others, the impossibility of flight, or the condemnation of an airplane-hating god is responsible for the failure.
See my edit. Basically, the enemy airplanes flying overhead and dropping bombs should convince you that flight is indeed possible. Also any remaining desire you have it invent excuses will go away once one of the bombs explodes close enough to you.
What’s the goal of rationalism as a movement?
No idea. I don’t even think rationalism is a movement (in the usual sociological meaning). Ask some of the founders.
The founders don’t get to decide whether or not it is a movement, or what goal it does or doesn’t have. It turns out that many founders in this case are also influential agents, but the influential agents I’ve talked to have expressed that they expect the world to be a better place if people generally make better decisions (in cases where objectively better decision-making is a meaningful concept).
Careful, those are the kind of political claims that where there is currently so much mind-kill that I wouldn’t trust much of the “evidence” you’re using to declare them obviously false.
The general claim is one where I think it would be better to test it on historical examples.
So, because Copernicus was eventually vindicated, reality prevails in general? Only a smaller subset of humanity believes in science.