Unknown, MDL works for me. (I think your 100-property example works better in terms of MDL than your 2-property example.)
It seems to me that the justification for taking an outside view is some kind of probabilistic exchangeability. In fact, exchangeability seems to me to be the key concept grounding an outside view, and I’m surprised no one else has brought that concept up.
When the events being predicted are rare and complicated, I have a hard time seeing an outside view as justified. I don’t see any justification for an inside view, either.
Unknown, MDL works for me. (I think your 100-property example works better in terms of MDL than your 2-property example.)
It seems to me that the justification for taking an outside view is some kind of probabilistic exchangeability. In fact, exchangeability seems to me to be the key concept grounding an outside view, and I’m surprised no one else has brought that concept up.
When the events being predicted are rare and complicated, I have a hard time seeing an outside view as justified. I don’t see any justification for an inside view, either.